16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sunderland, 29% draw, 26% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sunderland at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sunderland97%Draw3%AZ Alkmaar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Trai Hume
22'
Omar Alderete
30'
38'
Ayoub Oufkir
46'
🔁A. Oufkirout: Weslley Patati
🔁O. Aldereteout: D. Ballard
52'
59'
🔁K. Smitout: V. Byskov
64'
Weslley Patati
⚽E. Le Fee (pen)
66'
🔁T. Humeout: T. Meunier
67'
🔁M. Fofanaout: B. Brobbey
67'
🔁W. Isidorout: N. Angulo
67'
Nordi Mukiele
72'
76'
🔁J. Clasieout: D. Kwakman
83'
🔁L. Schoutenout: C. Stengs
83'
🔁M. Meerdinkout: J. Hornkamp
🔁K. Dansoout: C. Rigg
84'

Match stats — Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar

45%Possession55%
20Shots11
5On target2
12Corners5
2.9xG1.49

Goals against chances

Sunderland1 from 2.90 xGless than the chances were worth
AZ Alkmaar0 from 1.49 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1
  • 22R. RoefsG
  • 20N. MukieleD
  • 4K. DansoD
  • 15O. AldereteD
  • 17R. MandavaD
  • 34G. XhakaM
  • 27N. SadikiM
  • 32T. HumeM
  • 28E. Le FeeM
  • 39M. FofanaM
  • 18W. IsidorF
Substitutes
  • 21S. MooreG
  • 48J. JonesD
  • 12T. MeunierD
  • 13L. O'NienM
  • 5D. BallardD
  • 6D. MethalieD
  • 11C. RiggM
  • 29J. AhokaM
  • 9B. BrobbeyF
Coach: Regis Le Bris
AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 4L. SchoutenD
  • 5M. Chavez GarciaD
  • 8J. ClasieM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 24A. OufkirM
  • 10K. SmitM
  • 11R. DaalM
  • 9M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 29W. HoedtD
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 31R. IchiharaD
  • 34M. de WitD
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 17V. ByskovM
  • 14C. StengsM
  • 19J. HornkampF
Coach: Leeroy Echteld

Form going into Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar

Sunderland

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
  • W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
  • W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Fortuna Sittard22 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Sunderland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sunderland scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sunderland conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sunderland321042+27
10AZ Alkmaar320162+46

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar

Sunderland

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

AZ Alkmaar

GoalsAssists

  • Weslley Patati21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sunderland beat AZ Alkmaar 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sunderland at 45%. The goal: E. Le Fee (penalty) 66' for Sunderland. On expected goals it finished 2.90–1.49.

How the call on Sunderland v AZ Alkmaar has moved

First published on 2 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Sunderland's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Sunderland win45%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. AZ Alkmaar win26%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.