Regular Season - 6 · 13 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Bundesliga prediction & result

Merkur-Arena, Graz
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sturm Graz 2-1 Lask Linz.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Sturm Graz, 29% draw, 32% Lask Linz — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.48, Lask Linz 1.20.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz

55%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 10%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sturm Graz at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sturm Graz96%Draw4%Lask Linz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
•George Bello
Jurgen Heil
13'
⚽Gizo Mamageishviliassist: Simon Seidl
34'
45+3'
⚽Krystof Danek
🔁Seedy Jattaout: Oumar Diakité
50'
⚽Oumar Diakitéassist: Arjan Malić
59'
60'
🔁Christoph Langout: Sasa Kalajdzic
60'
🔁Krystof Danekout: Robert Ljubicic
🔁Gizo Mamageishviliout: Otar Kiteishvili
61'
🔁Simon Seidlout: Filip Rozga Kucharczyk
61'
76'
Melayro Bogarde
77'
🔁Melayro Bogardeout: Alessandro Schöpf
🔁Jon Gorenc Stankovićout: Luca Weinhandl
77'
82'
🔁Kasper Jorgensenout: Florian Flecker
Otar Kiteishvili
85'
Filip Rozga Kucharczyk
85'
85'
Sascha Horvath
⚽Otar Kiteishvili (pen)
90+6'

Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz

35%Possession65%
14Shots25
7On target4
3Corners6

Line-ups

Sturm Graz 4-4-2
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 2J. QuarshieD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 78V. MatoshiM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
  • 43Jacob Peter HödlM
  • 15G. MamageishviliF
  • 20S. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 10O. KiteishviliM
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 21P. PetrovićD
  • 8F. RózgaM
  • 39Luca WeinhandlM
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 14O. DiakitéF
  • 26B. BeganovićF
  • 27L. BalboD
Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Lask Linz 3-4-1-2
  • 1L. JungwirthG
  • 4X. MbuyambaD
  • 43AlemãoD
  • 16A. AndradeD
  • 20K. JørgensenM
  • 6M. BogardeM
  • 30S. HorvathM
  • 2G. BelloM
  • 9K. DaněkM
  • 8M. UsorF
  • 27C. LangF
Substitutes
  • 33T. SchützenauerG
  • 3M. FreckletonD
  • 23Daniel ElfadliM
  • 25Y. DibangoD
  • 29F. FleckerF
  • 18A. SchöpfM
  • 10R. LjubičićM
  • 11S. KalajdzicF
  • 45N. KaneF
Coach: D. Kühbauer

Form going into Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz

Sturm Graz

  • L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
  • D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
  • W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
  • W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026

Lask Linz

  • W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
  • W3-0SCR Altach29 August 2026
  • W4-1Ried14 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Austria Vienna9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Sturm Graz632186+211
1Lask Linz6501164+1215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz

  • 13 September 2026Sturm Graz 2–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
  • 22 April 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
  • 19 April 2026Lask Linz 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 23 November 2025Sturm Graz 1–3 Lask LinzBundesliga
  • 1 August 2025Lask Linz 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 16 March 2025Sturm Graz 4–2 Lask LinzBundesliga

Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Lask Linz

Sturm Graz

  • N. Weiper2 goals

Lask Linz

  • S. Adeniran4 goals1 assists
  • C. Lang4 goals
  • M. Usor2 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.48 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.20 for Lask Linz; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Gizo Mamageishvili 34' (Sturm Graz), Krystof Danek 45' (Lask Linz), Oumar Diakité 59' (Sturm Graz).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sturm Graz against 1.2 for Lask Linz. Sturm Graz's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.4 for Lask Linz.