Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Sturm Graz 2-1 Lask Linz.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Sturm Graz, 29% draw, 30% Lask Linz — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sturm Graz at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
Line-ups
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 28J. HeilD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 5A. VallciD
- 23A. MalicD
- 19S. SeidlM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 15G. MamageishviliF
- 20S. JattaF
- 10O. KiteishviliM
- 30P. KollerD
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 8F. RózgaM
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 22A. HelacG
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 27L. BalboD
- 1L. JungwirthG
- 4X. MbuyambaD
- 43AlemãoD
- 16A. AndradeD
- 20K. JørgensenM
- 6M. BogardeM
- 30S. HorvathM
- 2G. BelloM
- 9K. DaněkM
- 8M. UsorF
- 27C. LangF
- 33T. SchützenauerG
- 3M. FreckletonD
- 23Daniel ElfadliM
- 25Y. DibangoD
- 29F. FleckerF
- 18A. SchöpfM
- 10R. LjubičićM
- 11S. KalajdzicF
- 45N. KaneF
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
- L0-1Fenerbahçe11 August 2026
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
Lask Linz
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to AEK Athens FC8 September 2026
- W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach29 August 2026
- W5-1Celtic25 August 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic19 August 2026
What these results say
- Sturm Graz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sturm Graz had two goals or fewer.
- Lask Linz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
- 22 April 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 19 April 2026Lask Linz 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 23 November 2025Sturm Graz 1–3 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 1 August 2025Lask Linz 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 16 March 2025Sturm Graz 4–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité60
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- C. Lang70
- S. Adeniran61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sturm Graz beat Lask Linz 2–1. The model had made a win for Sturm Graz its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gizo Mamageishvili 34' for Sturm Graz, Krystof Danek 45+3' for Lask Linz, Oumar Diakité 59' for Sturm Graz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.