Sheffield Utd
vs
Wolves
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Sheffield Utd 0-1 Wolves.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Sheffield Utd, 29% draw, 39% Wolves — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.28, Wolves 1.57.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sheffield Utd vs Wolves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wolves at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sheffield Utd vs Wolves
Line-ups
- 1M. CooperG
- 5J. TangangaD
- 25M. McGuinnessD
- 15L. KitchingD
- 8H. ChoudhuryM
- 42Sydie PeckM
- 27K. PhillipsM
- 4O. ArblasterM
- 3S. McCallumM
- 45P. BamfordF
- 22B. BreretonF
- 10J. AyewF
- 9T. CannonF
- 17A. DaviesG
- 2M. DohertyD
- 11R. DonovanM
- 30R. Norrington-DaviesD
- 44J. RiedewaldM
- 7J. RothwellM
- 16J. ShackletonD
- 1José SáG
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 37L. KrejčíD
- 3Hugo BuenoD
- 7AndréM
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 21Rodrigo GomesM
- 28Fer LópezM
- 36M. ManeM
- 10A. ArmstrongF
- 14S. NeaveF
- 24Toti GomesD
- 2K. TrippierD
- 13João VirgíniaG
- 9R. JiménezF
- 33G. KonanD
- 8J. JamesM
- 20T. DoyleM
- 12B. TraoréM
Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Wolves
Sheffield Utd
- W2-1away to Blackburn8 September 2026
- L1-3Norwich5 September 2026
- W3-2Bolton1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cardiff29 August 2026
Wolves
- D2-2away to Birmingham6 September 2026
- L2-4away to West Ham1 September 2026
- W4-1Stoke City29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Preston22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Wolves
- 13 September 2026Sheffield Utd 0–1 WolvesChampionship
- 25 February 2024Wolves 1–0 Sheffield UtdPremier League
- 4 November 2023Sheffield Utd 2–1 WolvesPremier League
- 9 January 2022Wolves 3–0 Sheffield UtdFA Cup
- 17 April 2021Wolves 1–0 Sheffield UtdPremier League
- 14 September 2020Sheffield Utd 0–2 WolvesPremier League
Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Wolves
Sheffield Utd
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Wolves
- Fer López3 goals2 assists
- R. Jiménez3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.28 goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.57 for Wolves; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Raúl Jiménez 90' (Wolves).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sheffield Utd against 1.57 for Wolves. Sheffield Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.09 for Wolves.