SV Elversberg
vs
Bayern München
Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern München.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% SV Elversberg, 28% draw, 39% Bayern München — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SV Elversberg 1.36, Bayern München 1.57.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: SV Elversberg vs Bayern München
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SV Elversberg vs Bayern München
Line-ups
- 20N. KristofG
- 30J. GyamerahD
- 19L. PinckertD
- 31M. RohrD
- 21L. GüntherD
- 43F. KeidelM
- 8Ł. PorębaM
- 25L. PetkovM
- 40Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaM
- 39William Cole CampbellM
- 42D. MokwaF
- 28T. BossG
- 6A. CondéM
- 10Noah DarvichM
- 9N. FutkeuF
- 7M. KrattenmacherM
- 3F. Le JoncourD
- 2N. MickelsonD
- 24L. SchnellbacherM
- 26L. SirchD
- 40J. UrbigG
- 44J. StanišićD
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 11N. BrownD
- 45A. PavlovićM
- 8T. BischofM
- 42L. KarlM
- 17M. OliseM
- 34I. SaibariM
- 9H. KaneF
- 1M. NeuerG
- 10J. MusialaM
- 4J. TahD
- 27K. LaimerM
- 6J. KimmichM
- 21H. ItoD
- 7S. GnabryF
- 14L. DíazF
- 19A. DaviesD
Form going into SV Elversberg vs Bayern München
SV Elversberg
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
- W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026
Bayern München
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
- W5-1VfB Stuttgart28 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SV Elversberg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Bayern München | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs Bayern München
- 13 September 2026SV Elversberg 1–2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and Bayern München
SV Elversberg
- M. Krattenmacher3 goals
- D. Mokwa2 goals
Bayern München
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.36 goals for SV Elversberg and 1.57 for Bayern München; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lennart Karl 26' (Bayern München), Maurice Krattenmacher 61' (SV Elversberg), Harry Kane 72' (Bayern München).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for SV Elversberg against 1.57 for Bayern München. SV Elversberg's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.82 for Bayern München.