SV Elversberg vs Bayern München Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern München.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% SV Elversberg, 28% draw, 37% Bayern München — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SV Elversberg vs Bayern München
Line-ups
- 20N. KristofG
- 30J. GyamerahD
- 19L. PinckertD
- 31M. RohrD
- 21L. GüntherD
- 43F. KeidelM
- 8Ł. PorębaM
- 25L. PetkovM
- 40Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaM
- 39William Cole CampbellM
- 42D. MokwaF
- 28T. BossG
- 6A. CondéM
- 10Noah DarvichM
- 9N. FutkeuF
- 7M. KrattenmacherM
- 3F. Le JoncourD
- 2N. MickelsonD
- 24L. SchnellbacherM
- 26L. SirchD
- 40J. UrbigG
- 44J. StanišićD
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 11N. BrownD
- 45A. PavlovićM
- 8T. BischofM
- 42L. KarlM
- 17M. OliseM
- 34I. SaibariM
- 9H. KaneF
- 1M. NeuerG
- 10J. MusialaM
- 4J. TahD
- 27K. LaimerM
- 6J. KimmichM
- 21H. ItoD
- 7S. GnabryF
- 14L. DíazF
- 19A. DaviesD
Form going into SV Elversberg vs Bayern München
SV Elversberg
All competitions we cover
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
- W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026
Bayern München
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
- W5-1VfB Stuttgart28 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 10 |
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and Bayern München
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher31
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise63
- H. Kane45
- L. Díaz41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayern München won 2–1 at SV Elversberg. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bayern München at 37%. The goals: Lennart Karl 26' for Bayern München, Maurice Krattenmacher 61' for SV Elversberg, Harry Kane 72' for Bayern München.
How the call on SV Elversberg v Bayern München has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is SV Elversberg's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- SV Elversberg win35%▲ +4
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Bayern München win37%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.