Regular Season - 6 · 13 September 2026, 12:30 UTC

WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg Bundesliga prediction & result

Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Innsbruck
Full time2 2

Final score: WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% WSG Wattens, 28% draw, 28% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: WSG Wattens 1.69, TSV Hartberg 1.12.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg

55%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-0 10%2-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts WSG Wattens at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

WSG Wattens0%Draw5%TSV Hartberg95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Oliver Lukic
44'
Marco Hoffmannassist: Tobias Kainz
🔁Nikolai Baden Frederiksenout: Lukas Hinterseer
62'
🔁M. Olakigbeout: Moritz Wels
62'
63'
🔁Youba Diarraout: Matthias Postl
Lukas Hinterseerassist: Matthäus Taferner
72'
73'
🔁Marco Hoffmannout: Habib Coulibaly
🔁Thomas Goigingerout: Murat Satin
77'
84'
🔁paul komposchout: Lukas Spendlhofer
84'
🔁Fabian Wilfingerout: Jed Drew
🔁Marc Striednigout: Thomas Sabitzer
88'
Murat Satin (pen)
90+5'

Match stats — WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg

66%Possession34%
16Shots5
7On target4
14Corners5

Line-ups

WSG Wattens 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. HamzićG
  • 5D. MurrayD
  • 23M. BorasD
  • 3D. GugganigD
  • 28M. OswaldD
  • 6Marc StriednigM
  • 30M. TafernerM
  • 18H. BalićM
  • 36T. GoigingerM
  • 17M. OlakigbeM
  • 8N. FrederiksenF
Substitutes
  • 43N. ČelićM
  • 13A. EckmayrG
  • 32Raphael GschösserM
  • 16L. HinterseerF
  • 27D. JauneggD
  • 14D. KubattaD
  • 10T. SabitzerF
  • 11M. ŞatinM
  • 37M. WelsM
Coach: P. Semlic
TSV Hartberg 4-1-4-1
  • 91Á. PécsiG
  • 18F. WilfingerD
  • 27K. SchoppD
  • 14P. KomposchD
  • 16M. DalpiazD
  • 4B. MarkušM
  • 7A. GattermayerM
  • 5Y. DiarraM
  • 23T. KainzM
  • 10O. LukicM
  • 22M. HoffmanF
Substitutes
  • 95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
  • 17J. KarnerM
  • 77D. KorherrF
  • 21L. MarićG
  • 8M. PostlF
  • 49A. RadulovićF
  • 19L. SpendlhoferD
  • 11J. DrewF
  • 6Habib CoulibalyD
Coach: M. Schopp

Form going into WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg

WSG Wattens

  • W1-0away to Austria Vienna2 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Austria Lustenau28 August 2026
  • L0-3Red Bull Salzburg16 August 2026
  • L1-3away to SCR Altach7 August 2026

TSV Hartberg

  • W3-2Ried30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
  • L0-2Austria Vienna16 August 2026
  • L0-2Sturm Graz8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5WSG Wattens62229908
6TSV Hartberg6213710-37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg

  • 13 September 2026WSG Wattens 2–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 13 December 2025TSV Hartberg 2–1 WSG WattensBundesliga
  • 2 August 2025WSG Wattens 4–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 17 May 2025TSV Hartberg 3–2 WSG WattensBundesliga
  • 5 April 2025WSG Wattens 1–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 9 February 2025WSG Wattens 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga

Leading scorers: WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg

WSG Wattens

  • M. Olakigbe2 goals1 assists

TSV Hartberg

  • C. Hoffmann2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.69 goals for WSG Wattens and 1.12 for TSV Hartberg; the game produced 2 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Oliver Lukic 14' (TSV Hartberg), Marco Hoffmann 44' (TSV Hartberg), Lukas Hinterseer 72' (WSG Wattens), Murat Satin 90' (WSG Wattens).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives WSG Wattens the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for WSG Wattens against 1.12 for TSV Hartberg. WSG Wattens's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.82 for TSV Hartberg.