WSG Wattens
vs
TSV Hartberg
Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% WSG Wattens, 28% draw, 28% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: WSG Wattens 1.69, TSV Hartberg 1.12.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts WSG Wattens at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg
Line-ups
- 1S. HamzićG
- 5D. MurrayD
- 23M. BorasD
- 3D. GugganigD
- 28M. OswaldD
- 6Marc StriednigM
- 30M. TafernerM
- 18H. BalićM
- 36T. GoigingerM
- 17M. OlakigbeM
- 8N. FrederiksenF
- 43N. ČelićM
- 13A. EckmayrG
- 32Raphael GschösserM
- 16L. HinterseerF
- 27D. JauneggD
- 14D. KubattaD
- 10T. SabitzerF
- 11M. ŞatinM
- 37M. WelsM
- 91Á. PécsiG
- 18F. WilfingerD
- 27K. SchoppD
- 14P. KomposchD
- 16M. DalpiazD
- 4B. MarkušM
- 7A. GattermayerM
- 5Y. DiarraM
- 23T. KainzM
- 10O. LukicM
- 22M. HoffmanF
- 95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
- 17J. KarnerM
- 77D. KorherrF
- 21L. MarićG
- 8M. PostlF
- 49A. RadulovićF
- 19L. SpendlhoferD
- 11J. DrewF
- 6Habib CoulibalyD
Form going into WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg
WSG Wattens
- W1-0away to Austria Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-0away to Austria Lustenau28 August 2026
- L0-3Red Bull Salzburg16 August 2026
- L1-3away to SCR Altach7 August 2026
TSV Hartberg
- W3-2Ried30 August 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
- L0-2Austria Vienna16 August 2026
- L0-2Sturm Graz8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | WSG Wattens | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg
- 13 September 2026WSG Wattens 2–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 13 December 2025TSV Hartberg 2–1 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 2 August 2025WSG Wattens 4–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 17 May 2025TSV Hartberg 3–2 WSG WattensBundesliga
- 5 April 2025WSG Wattens 1–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 9 February 2025WSG Wattens 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg
WSG Wattens
- M. Olakigbe2 goals1 assists
TSV Hartberg
- C. Hoffmann2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.69 goals for WSG Wattens and 1.12 for TSV Hartberg; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Oliver Lukic 14' (TSV Hartberg), Marco Hoffmann 44' (TSV Hartberg), Lukas Hinterseer 72' (WSG Wattens), Murat Satin 90' (WSG Wattens).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives WSG Wattens the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for WSG Wattens against 1.12 for TSV Hartberg. WSG Wattens's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.82 for TSV Hartberg.