13 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov Premier League prediction & result

Lukoil Arena, Moscow
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Spartak Moscow 3-0 FC Rostov.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Spartak Moscow, 27% draw, 25% FC Rostov — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Spartak Moscow at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spartak Moscow99%Draw1%FC Rostov0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gedson Fernandesassist: Daniil Denisov
26'
•Nail Umyarov
51'
⚽Pablo Solari (pen)
55'
60'
🔁Ivan Komarovout: Ronaldo
63'
Konstantin Kuchaev
🔁Marquinhosout: Igor Dmitriev
66'
67'
Timur Suleymanov
🔁Roman Zobninout: Danil Prutsev
67'
71'
🔁Timur Suleymanovout: Maksim Mukhin
72'
Andrey Langovich
🔁Srdjan Babicout: Christopher Wooh
75'
🔁Manfred Ugaldeout: Mirlind Daku
75'
86'
🔁Yaroslav Mikhailovout: Daniil Shantaliy
🔁Pablo Solariout: Nikita Massalyga
86'
⚽Nikita Massalygaassist: Igor Dmitriev
89'
90'
Konstantin Kuchaev
Victor Parada
90+3'
Christopher Wooh
90+3'
90+5'
Danila Prokhin

Match stats — Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov

65%Possession35%
15Shots9
9On target7
3Corners5

Line-ups

Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1
  • 98A. MaksimenkoG
  • 97D. DenisovD
  • 4A. DjikuD
  • 6S. BabićD
  • 33Víctor ParadaD
  • 18N. UmyarovM
  • 47R. ZobninM
  • 7P. SolariM
  • 83Gedson FernandesM
  • 10MarquinhosM
  • 9M. UgaldeF
Substitutes
  • 56A. DovbnyaG
  • 17V. SausM
  • 24Nikita MassalygaM
  • 25D. PrutsevM
  • 1I. PomazunG
  • 62P. PolekhF
  • 3C. WoohD
  • 5E. BarcoM
  • 19M. DakuF
Coach: Carcedo
FC Rostov 4-3-3
  • 84A. PetrovG
  • 59N. BabakinD
  • 40Ygor NogueiraD
  • 22D. SemenchukD
  • 87A. LangovichD
  • 5Y. MikhaylovM
  • 27D. ProkhinM
  • 18K. KuchaevM
  • 10I. KomarovF
  • 99T. SuleymanovF
  • 6O. OlusegunF
Substitutes
  • 1R. YatimovG
  • 13D. TitovM
  • 11Ibraheem AjasaF
  • 34D. GolikovG
  • 80K. MadrakhimovF
  • 16M. MukhinM
  • 7RonaldoF
  • 91Anton ShamoninF
  • 21D. ShantaliyM
Coach: Jonatan Alba

Form going into Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov

Spartak Moscow

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
  • D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
  • W2-0Zenit23 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Baltika16 August 2026
  • L1-2FC Krasnodar9 August 2026

FC Rostov

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Akhmat22 August 2026
  • D1-1Rubin15 August 2026
  • D0-0away to CSKA Moscow8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Spartak Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Spartak Moscow conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Spartak Moscow.
  • FC Rostov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Rostov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Spartak Moscow127232110+1123
7FC Rostov124351317-415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov

  • 12 April 2026FC Rostov 1–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
  • 21 February 2026Spartak Moscow 5–2 FC RostovFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 October 2025Spartak Moscow 1–1 FC RostovPremier League
  • 18 September 2025Spartak Moscow 1–2 FC RostovCup
  • 30 July 2025FC Rostov 0–2 Spartak MoscowCup

Leading scorers: Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov

Spartak Moscow

GoalsAssists

  • M. Daku51
  • M. Ugalde50

FC Rostov

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Spartak Moscow beat FC Rostov 3–0. The model had made a win for Spartak Moscow its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gedson Fernandes 26' for Spartak Moscow, Pablo Solari (penalty) 55' for Spartak Moscow, Nikita Massalyga 89' for Spartak Moscow. Sent off: Konstantin Kuchaev (FC Rostov) 90'.

How the call on Spartak Moscow v FC Rostov has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 27% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Spartak Moscow's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Spartak Moscow win48%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. FC Rostov win25%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.