Spartak Moscow
vs
FC Rostov
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Moscow 3-0 FC Rostov.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Spartak Moscow, 26% draw, 22% FC Rostov — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 2.07, FC Rostov 0.95.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Moscow at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov
Spartak Moscow
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
- W2-0Zenit23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Baltika16 August 2026
FC Rostov
- W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Akhmat22 August 2026
- D1-1Rubin15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov
- 12 April 2026FC Rostov 1–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 21 February 2026Spartak Moscow 5–2 FC RostovFriendlies Clubs
- 18 October 2025Spartak Moscow 1–1 FC RostovPremier League
- 18 September 2025Spartak Moscow 1–2 FC RostovCup
- 30 July 2025FC Rostov 0–2 Spartak MoscowCup
- 15 May 2025Spartak Moscow 1–2 FC RostovCup
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Spartak Moscow carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.1 for FC Rostov. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.95 for FC Rostov. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Moscow rate 0.60 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Rostov rate 0.47 and 2.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spartak Moscow a 17.9% chance of the title and FC Rostov 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Moscow the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Spartak Moscow against 0.95 for FC Rostov. Spartak Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.12 for FC Rostov.