RB Leipzig
vs
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% RB Leipzig, 27% draw, 25% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 1.94, Hamburger SV 1.08.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Leipzig at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Line-ups
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 23C. LukebaD
- 22D. RaumD
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 8A. OuédraogoM
- 10B. GrudaF
- 27T. GomisF
- 7A. NusaF
- 40RômuloF
- 3M. EstèveD
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 9Marc GuiuF
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
- 28C. NkunkuF
- 17R. BakuD
- 13N. SeiwaldM
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 43S. NandjaD
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 7Z. El OuahdiM
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 21N. RembergM
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 27P. DakaM
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 5M. AdelineM
- 18B. JattaM
- 37L. LemkeD
- 9T. MoffiF
- 4B. NadirM
- 17W. OmariD
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 12S. TangvikG
- 20Fábio VieiraM
Form going into RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
- L1-3away to Werder Bremen5 September 2026
- W3-0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 August 2026
Hamburger SV
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
- 13 September 2026RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 1 March 2026Hamburger SV 1–2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 18 October 2025RB Leipzig 2–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 18 October 2022RB Leipzig 4–0 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal
- 23 April 2019Hamburger SV 1–3 RB LeipzigDFB Pokal
- 27 January 2018RB Leipzig 1–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
- A. Nusa2 goals2 assists
- R. Baku2 goals
Hamburger SV
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.94 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.08 for Hamburger SV; the game produced 5 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Tidiam Gomis 17' (RB Leipzig), Antonio Nusa 28' (RB Leipzig), Willi Orbán 72' (RB Leipzig), Christopher Nkunku 74' (RB Leipzig), Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz 77' (RB Leipzig).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for RB Leipzig against 1.08 for Hamburger SV. RB Leipzig's attack/defence rating is 1.16/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.03 for Hamburger SV.