RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% RB Leipzig, 28% draw, 28% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Leipzig at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Line-ups
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 23C. LukebaD
- 22D. RaumD
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 8A. OuédraogoM
- 10B. GrudaF
- 27T. GomisF
- 7A. NusaF
- 40RômuloF
- 3M. EstèveD
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 9Marc GuiuF
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
- 28C. NkunkuF
- 17R. BakuD
- 13N. SeiwaldM
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 43S. NandjaD
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 7Z. El OuahdiM
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 21N. RembergM
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 27P. DakaM
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 5M. AdelineM
- 18B. JattaM
- 37L. LemkeD
- 9T. MoffiF
- 4B. NadirM
- 17W. OmariD
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 12S. TangvikG
- 20Fábio VieiraM
Form going into RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Como10 September 2026
- L1-3away to Werder Bremen5 September 2026
- W3-0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 August 2026
Hamburger SV
All competitions we cover
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 12 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
- 1 March 2026Hamburger SV 1–2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 18 October 2025RB Leipzig 2–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 18 October 2022RB Leipzig 4–0 Hamburger SVDFB Pokal
- 23 April 2019Hamburger SV 1–3 RB LeipzigDFB Pokal
- 27 January 2018RB Leipzig 1–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku41
- A. Nusa35
- T. Gomis32
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
RB Leipzig beat Hamburger SV 5–0. The model had made a win for RB Leipzig its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tidiam Gomis 17' for RB Leipzig, Antonio Nusa 28' for RB Leipzig, Willi Orbán 72' for RB Leipzig, Christopher Nkunku 74' for RB Leipzig, Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz 77' for RB Leipzig.
How the call on RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is RB Leipzig's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- RB Leipzig win44%▼ −5
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Hamburger SV win28%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.