Regular Season - 6 · 13 September 2026, 12:30 UTC

Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau Bundesliga prediction & result

Generali Arena, Vienna
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Austria Vienna 2-1 Austria Lustenau.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Austria Vienna, 29% draw, 30% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Austria Vienna 1.58, Austria Lustenau 1.17.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau

55%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-0 10%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Austria Vienna at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austria Vienna4%Draw92%Austria Lustenau4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Daniel Nnodimout: Kang-Hee Lee
41'
🔁Philipp Maybachout: Sanel Saljic
45'
45'
🔁Albin Gashiout: Sacha Delaye
47'
⚽Dominik Weixelbraunassist: Sacha Delaye
🔁Vasilije Markovicout: Julian Hettwer
63'
70'
🔁Dominik Weixelbraunout: Precious Benjamin
70'
🔁Emmanuel Chukwuout: Matthias Maak
🔁Valentino Müllerout: Kelvin Owusu Boateng
78'
81'
🔁Antonio Verinacout: Lenn Jastremski
⚽Julian Hettwerassist: Kelvin Owusu Boateng
81'
86'
Niklas Pertlwieser
⚽Kelvin Owusu Boateng
90+2'
•Kelvin Owusu Boateng
90+3'

Match stats — Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau

63%Possession37%
15Shots13
5On target5
6Corners4

Line-ups

Austria Vienna 3-4-2-1
  • 1S. Şahin-RadlingerG
  • 26R. RanftlD
  • 15A. DragovićD
  • 46J. HandlD
  • 40Daniel NnodimM
  • 5V. MüllerM
  • 6Philipp MaybachM
  • 17Lee Tae-SeokM
  • 30M. FischerM
  • 7V. MarkovicM
  • 19J. EggesteinF
Substitutes
  • 22F. WustingerM
  • 10S. SaljicM
  • 14K. BoatengF
  • 3I. BuhariD
  • 74H. DeshihskuF
  • 20J. HettwerF
  • 99M. KosG
  • 16Lee Kang-HeeM
  • 21Matteo SchablasM
Coach: S. Helm
Austria Lustenau 4-1-4-1
  • 27D. SchierlG
  • 21AnilsonD
  • 15E. ChukwuD
  • 29N. PertlwieserD
  • 3Danilo SoaresD
  • 8D. KacuriM
  • 11D. WeixelbraunM
  • 20L. AfrifaM
  • 17A. GashiM
  • 24S. DiarraM
  • 39A. VerinacF
Substitutes
  • 14P. BenjaminF
  • 30P. BöhmG
  • 19S. DelayeM
  • 18R. VoisineD
  • 7F. GmeinerD
  • 26L. IbertsbergerD
  • 61H. IsmailcebiogluM
  • 9L. JastremskiF
  • 31M. MaakD
Coach: M. Mader

Form going into Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau

Austria Vienna

  • L0-1WSG Wattens2 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Red Bull Salzburg30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to TSV Hartberg16 August 2026
  • L0-2Lask Linz9 August 2026

Austria Lustenau

  • L0-4WSG Wattens28 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Sturm Graz22 August 2026
  • W2-1Wolfsberger AC15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Grazer AK8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Austria Vienna6204511-66
11Austria Lustenau6123611-55

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau

  • 13 September 2026Austria Vienna 2–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 3 May 2024Austria Lustenau 2–0 Austria ViennaBundesliga
  • 6 April 2024Austria Vienna 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 4 November 2023Austria Vienna 1–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
  • 6 August 2023Austria Lustenau 0–2 Austria ViennaBundesliga
  • 11 June 2023Austria Vienna 5–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga

Leading scorers: Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau

Austria Vienna

  • J. Hettwer2 goals

Austria Lustenau

  • D. Weixelbraun3 goals1 assists
  • A. Verinac2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.58 goals for Austria Vienna and 1.17 for Austria Lustenau; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Dominik Weixelbraun 47' (Austria Lustenau), Julian Hettwer 81' (Austria Vienna), Kelvin Owusu Boateng 90' (Austria Vienna).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Austria Vienna the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Austria Vienna against 1.17 for Austria Lustenau. Austria Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.07 for Austria Lustenau.