Rapid Vienna
vs
Grazer AK
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 39% Rapid Vienna, 28% draw, 33% Grazer AK — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rapid Vienna 1.35, Grazer AK 1.20.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rapid Vienna
- W2-1away to Ried9 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach2 August 2026
Grazer AK
- W2-1Austria Lustenau8 August 2026
- L0-3away to Lask Linz31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Rapid Vienna | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Rapid Vienna
No league goals recorded yet.
Grazer AK
- A. Hofleitner1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rapid Vienna carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.43 for Grazer AK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Rapid Vienna W-W; Grazer AK L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.20 for Grazer AK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rapid Vienna rate 0.51 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grazer AK rate 0.60 and 1.40.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid Vienna the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rapid Vienna against 1.2 for Grazer AK. Rapid Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.4 for Grazer AK.