Peterborough
vs
Oxford United
League One prediction
Our model says: Peterborough 0–1 Oxford United
The model makes it 24% Peterborough, 27% draw, 49% Oxford United — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Peterborough 1.05, Oxford United 1.73.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
One-sided: Oxford United are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Peterborough's rating is built from 58 League One matches and Oxford United's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,257 matches.
Key facts
- Peterborough are 21st on 10 points from 12 games; Oxford United are 3rd on 22 points from 11 games — League One.
- Peterborough are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bromley.
- Oxford United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Stockport County.
- Last 6 meetings: Oxford United 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 August 2024, ended Oxford United 2–0 Peterborough.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Peterborough vs Oxford United
Has the model earned this number?
Oxford United at 49%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Peterborough vs Oxford United
Peterborough
League One
- D1-1away to Bromley24 October 2026
- L1-4away to Huddersfield20 October 2026
- D2-2Burton Albion17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Stockport County26 September 2026
Oxford United
League One
- W1-0Stockport County27 October 2026
- D0-0Bradford24 October 2026
- W2-1Wigan20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mansfield Town15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Notts County10 October 2026
What these results say
- Peterborough conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oxford United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Oxford United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 10 |
| 3 | Oxford United | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Peterborough vs Oxford United
- 13 August 2024Oxford United 2–0 PeterboroughLeague Cup
- 8 May 2024Peterborough 1–1 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 4 May 2024Oxford United 1–0 PeterboroughLeague One
- 13 April 2024Oxford United 5–0 PeterboroughLeague One
- 9 December 2023Peterborough 3–0 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 1 April 2023Peterborough 0–0 Oxford UnitedLeague One
Leading scorers: Peterborough and Oxford United
Peterborough
No player in League One's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Oxford United
GoalsAssists
- M. Harris51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
Peterborough carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.5 for Oxford United.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Peterborough and 1.73 for Oxford United.
Peterborough rate 0.51 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oxford United rate 0.67 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Peterborough a 0% chance of the title and Oxford United 29.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oxford United the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Peterborough against 1.73 for Oxford United. Peterborough's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.35 for Oxford United.
How the model reaches 49% for Oxford United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Oxford United to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Peterborough's ratings add 9 points and Oxford United's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Peterborough's ratings40%+9
- Oxford United's ratings49%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Peterborough at home · Oxford United away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Peterborough 12, Oxford United 11.
Oxford United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Peterborough have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Peterborough
- at Plymouth21 Nov · League Onewin 22%
- vs Cambridge United28 Nov · League Onewin 34%
- at Leyton Orient1 Dec · League Onewin 26%
Oxford United
- vs Wycombe21 Nov · League Onewin 56%
- at Luton28 Nov · League Onewin 38%
- vs Sheffield Wednesday1 Dec · League Onewin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.