11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Concepción vs Union La Calera Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Ester Roa
Referee: Hector Jona
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Concepción 1-1 Union La Calera.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Concepción, 29% draw, 18% Union La Calera — fair odds of 1.89, 3.45 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Concepción at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Concepción98%Draw2%Union La Calera0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
juan salomoni
Cristian Riquelme
21'
Mario Sandoval
28'
28'
Daniel Gutiérrez
45'
🔁Martín Hiriart Espinozaout: Maximiliano Fernández
⚽Ethan Espinozaassist: Cristian Riquelme
50'
🔁Jorge Henríquezout: Diego Acosta
66'
🔁Cristian Riquelmeout: Misael Dávila
66'
68'
🔁Brian Nicolás Ferreyraout: Matías Campos López
68'
🔁Joan Cruzout: Bayron Oyarzo
74'
Rodrigo Perez Casada
•Fausto Grillo
79'
80'
🔁Rodrigo Perez Casadaout: Joaquín Soto
🔁Mario Sandovalout: Fernando Martinez
84'
89'
🔁Camilo Moyaout: Yerko Leiva
🔁Ethan Espinozaout: Matías Cavalleri
90+3'
🔁Joaquín Larriveyout: Carlos Escobar
90+3'
Ariel Cáceres
90+6'
90+6'
⚽Christopher Díazassist: Bayron Oyarzo

Match stats — Concepción vs Union La Calera

47%Possession53%
17Shots10
6On target3
4Corners4
1.75xG0.49

Goals against chances

Concepción1 from 1.75 xGless than the chances were worth
Union La Calera1 from 0.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Concepción 4-1-4-1
  • 25N. ArayaG
  • 4A. CáceresD
  • 21N. RodríguezD
  • 37F. GrilloD
  • 29D. VarasD
  • 18Y. RodríguezM
  • 30E. EspinozaM
  • 16M. SandovalM
  • 20J. HenríquezM
  • 23C. RiquelmeM
  • 32J. LarriveyF
Substitutes
  • 22M. DávilaM
  • 19A. JaraF
  • 40Franco CaceresF
  • 12N. VelosoG
  • 8F. MartínezM
  • 9C. EscobarF
  • 27D. AcostaF
  • 3D. CarrascoD
  • 24M. CavalleriF
Coach: Fernando Díaz
Union La Calera 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. AvellanedaG
  • 25C. DíazD
  • 15J. SalomoniD
  • 27D. GutiérrezD
  • 4C. GutiérrezD
  • 23R. PérezM
  • 5C. MoyaM
  • 20J. CruzM
  • 11S. SáezM
  • 17M. HiriartM
  • 32B. FerreyraF
Substitutes
  • 30Maximiliano FernandezF
  • 12N. EspinozaG
  • 19M. CamposF
  • 21Valentino TorrenteM
  • 6V. LavinD
  • 8Y. LeivaM
  • 7B. OyarzoF
  • 3N. PalmaD
  • 29J. SotoM
Coach: J. Armijo

Form going into Concepción vs Union La Calera

Concepción

Primera División

  • D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026

Union La Calera

Primera División

  • W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Concepción27115113030038
16Union La Calera2766152443-1924

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Concepción vs Union La Calera

  • 14 April 2026Union La Calera 1–0 ConcepciónPrimera División

Leading scorers: Concepción and Union La Calera

Concepción

GoalsAssists

  • J. Larrivey73

Union La Calera

GoalsAssists

  • S. Sáez91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Concepción and Union La Calera drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Concepción at 53% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ethan Espinoza 50' for Concepción, Christopher Díaz 90+6' for Union La Calera. On expected goals it finished 1.75–0.49.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Concepción a 4.8% chance to finish in the top four: 6.4% after a win, 2.0% after a draw, 1.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 2.0%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Concepción v Union La Calera has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 48% / 31% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 29% / 18%: the biggest move is Concepción's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Concepción win53%▲ +5
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Union La Calera win18%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.