Sparta Praha
vs
Pardubice
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Sparta Praha 2–0 Pardubice
The model makes it 56% Sparta Praha, 25% draw, 19% Pardubice — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Sparta Praha 2.27, Pardubice 0.88.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 56% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
Sparta Praha
- W3-0away to Sigma Olomouc20 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
Pardubice
- W2-1Bohemians 190519 September 2026
- W2-1away to Baník Ostrava13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovácko5 September 2026
- L1-2Artis29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sigma Olomouc23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sparta Praha had three goals or more.
- Pardubice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pardubice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pardubice had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sparta Praha | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
| 13 | Pardubice | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
- 30 November 2025Sparta Praha 2–4 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 3 August 2025Pardubice 1–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 19 April 2025Pardubice 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 19 July 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 3 December 2023Pardubice 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 5 August 2023Sparta Praha 5–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Pardubice
Sparta Praha
- J. Mercado4 goals1 assists
- J. Alcócer4 goals1 assists
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sparta Praha carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.54 for Pardubice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Sparta Praha and 0.88 for Pardubice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sparta Praha rate 1.14 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pardubice rate 0.70 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sparta Praha a 2% chance of the title and Pardubice 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Sparta Praha against 0.88 for Pardubice. Sparta Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.31 for Pardubice.