Sparta Praha vs Pardubice Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Praha 2-0 Pardubice.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Sparta Praha, 22% draw, 15% Pardubice — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sparta Praha at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44Jakub SurovčíkG
- 25Ki-Jana HoeverD
- 6Tobias Kvalvagnes GuddalD
- 30Jaroslav ZelenýD
- 2Martin SuchomelD
- 38Hugo SochurekM
- 28Roman MacekM
- 26Patrik VydraM
- 17John MercadoF
- 14Jonatan Braut BrunesF
- 27Ebrima SinghatehF
- 31Matěj JurásekM
- 5Santiago EnemeM
- 19Adam ŠevinskýD
- 20Sivert MannsverkM
- 15Viktor VitályosD
- 66Sebastian ZajacG
- 47Krisztián HegyiG
- 3Pavel KadeřábekD
- 18Andy IrvingM
- 46Vladimir NeumanG
- 15Emmanuel GodwinD
- 33Denis HalinskýD
- 37Dávid KrčíkD
- 40Tobias BoledovicD
- 19Michal HlavatýM
- 6Marek IchaM
- 20Abdoull TankoM
- 90Giannis-Fivos BotosM
- 35Victor SamuelM
- 17Václav DrchalF
- 25Ryan MahutaD
- 16Tomáš JelínekM
- 9Daniel SmékalF
- 99KahuanF
- 27Martin ReilD
- 1Jáchym ŠerákG
- 43Jason NoslinD
- 12Jan TrédlD
- 11Jiri ZimaM
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
Sparta Praha
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Sigma Olomouc20 September 2026
- W4-1away to Ararat-Armenia16 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
Pardubice
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Bohemians 190519 September 2026
- W2-1away to Baník Ostrava13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovácko5 September 2026
- L1-2Artis29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sigma Olomouc23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sparta Praha had three goals or more.
- Pardubice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pardubice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pardubice had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 24 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Pardubice
- 30 November 2025Sparta Praha 2–4 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 3 August 2025Pardubice 1–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 19 April 2025Pardubice 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 19 July 2024Sparta Praha 2–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 3 December 2023Pardubice 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Pardubice
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes62
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Pardubice
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sparta Praha beat Pardubice 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sparta Praha at 63%. The goals: John Mercado 4' for Sparta Praha, Jaroslav Zelený 51' for Sparta Praha. On expected goals it finished 2.36–1.06.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sparta Praha a 79.1% chance to finish in the top four: 82.3% after a win, 75.7% after a draw, 71.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.3%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
For Pardubice the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.2% going in: 21.6% after a win, 24.6% after a draw, 29.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.1%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sparta Praha v Pardubice has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 63% / 22% / 15%: the biggest move is Sparta Praha's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Sparta Praha win63%▲ +7
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Pardubice win15%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.