KVC Westerlo
vs
Union St. Gilloise
The model makes it 38% KVC Westerlo, 24% draw, 38% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: KVC Westerlo 1.63, Union St. Gilloise 1.65.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise
- 1 March 2026KVC Westerlo 0–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 27 September 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 15 December 2024Union St. Gilloise 3–1 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 10 August 2024KVC Westerlo 4–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 10 February 2024Union St. Gilloise 2–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 29 October 2023KVC Westerlo 1–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
The two sides
KVC Westerlo carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.7 for Union St. Gilloise. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Union St. Gilloise D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.65 for Union St. Gilloise. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KVC Westerlo rate 0.80 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union St. Gilloise rate 0.80 and 1.08.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KVC Westerlo the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for KVC Westerlo against 1.65 for Union St. Gilloise. KVC Westerlo's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.08 for Union St. Gilloise.