Charleroi
vs
OH Leuven
The model makes it 57% Charleroi, 24% draw, 19% OH Leuven — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Charleroi 1.81, OH Leuven 0.94.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Charleroi vs OH Leuven
- 19 May 2026Charleroi 1–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 25 April 2026OH Leuven 0–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 14 March 2026Charleroi 0–2 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 27 July 2025OH Leuven 2–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 24 May 2025Charleroi 2–1 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 28 March 2025OH Leuven 0–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
The two sides
Charleroi carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.6 for OH Leuven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Charleroi and 0.94 for OH Leuven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charleroi rate 0.80 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OH Leuven rate 0.72 and 1.20.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charleroi the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Charleroi against 0.94 for OH Leuven. Charleroi's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.2 for OH Leuven.