8 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

St. Truiden vs Lommel United Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden
Full time1 – 1

Final score: St. Truiden 1-1 Lommel United.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% St. Truiden, 25% draw, 35% Lommel United — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Truiden at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Truiden4%Draw92%Lommel United4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
•Timothy Eyoma
24'
⚽R. Seuntjens (pen)
•Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
36'
49'
🔁S. Nypanout: J. Talvitie
56'
🔁S. Appuahout: Z. Vancsa
⚽I. Sebaouiassist: N. Ishiwatari
64'
🔁R. Merlenout: K. Matsuzawa
68'
73'
🔁H. Owareout: S. Adewoye
73'
🔁R. Seuntjensout: L. Beirinckx
Nelson Ishiwatari
75'
🔁F. Soelleout: O. Diouf
76'
🔁J. Pupeout: S. Shinkawa
89'
•Oumar Diouf
90'

Match stats — St. Truiden vs Lommel United

66%Possession34%
32Shots9
4On target2
6Corners2
1.91xG1.49

Goals against chances

St. Truiden1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
Lommel United1 from 1.49 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Truiden
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 3T. HataD
  • 4L. Mbe SohD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 60R. VanwesemaelM
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 19F. Soelle
Substitutes
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 33A. DirikenM
  • 99S. ShinkawaM
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 77O. Diouf
  • 38K. MatsuzawaF
  • 39R. Verheyden
Lommel United 4-2-3-1
  • 23M. PieklakG
  • 2J. van DuivenD
  • 3T. EyomaD
  • 5D. WoutersD
  • 34H. OwareD
  • 15L. SchoofsM
  • 6J. PelupessyM
  • 10T. ReynersM
  • 41S. NypanM
  • 21S. AppuahM
  • 30R. SeuntjensF
Substitutes
  • 1N. IvezicG
  • 8N. RommensM
  • 4S. AdewoyeD
  • 11Z. VancsaM
  • 22D. GordicM
  • 44I. Dada-MascollM
  • 7J. TalvitieF
  • 98M. SalahF
  • 60L. BeirinckxD
Coach: Lee Johnson

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12St. Truiden113262222011
6Lommel United114431513+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs Lommel United

  • 17 August 2020St. Truiden 1–1 Lommel UnitedFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: St. Truiden and Lommel United

St. Truiden

GoalsAssists

  • S. Baždar50
  • I. Sebaoui43

Lommel United

GoalsAssists

  • Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St. Truiden and Lommel United drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Truiden at 40% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Seuntjens (penalty) 24' for Lommel United, I. Sebaoui 64' for St. Truiden. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.49.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.