Odra Opole
vs
Miedz Legnica
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Odra Opole 1–0 Miedz Legnica
The model makes it 34% Odra Opole, 33% draw, 33% Miedz Legnica — fair odds of 2.94, 3.03 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Odra Opole 0.98, Miedz Legnica 0.93.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Odra Opole and Miedz Legnica are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Odra Opole are 14th on 9 points from 9 games; Miedz Legnica are 5th on 14 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Odra Opole have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Nieciecza.
- Miedz Legnica are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Stal Rzeszów.
- Last 6 meetings: Miedz Legnica 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 December 2025, ended Miedz Legnica 2–1 Odra Opole.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Odra Opole at 34% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica
Odra Opole
- L0-1away to Nieciecza19 September 2026
- L0-1Stal Rzeszów13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Stal Mielec5 September 2026
- D0-0ŁKS Łódź28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Podbeskidzie22 August 2026
Miedz Legnica
- L2-3Stal Rzeszów19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk13 September 2026
- D1-1Chrobry Głogów5 September 2026
- W2-1Warta Poznań30 August 2026
- W2-0Arka Gdynia23 August 2026
What these results say
- Odra Opole did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Odra Opole had two goals or fewer.
- Odra Opole conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Miedz Legnica.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Odra Opole | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica
- 6 December 2025Miedz Legnica 2–1 Odra OpoleI Liga
- 28 July 2025Odra Opole 2–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 4 May 2025Miedz Legnica 2–1 Odra OpoleI Liga
- 26 October 2024Odra Opole 0–2 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 6 April 2024Odra Opole 0–0 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 27 January 2024Odra Opole 0–2 Miedz LegnicaFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Odra Opole carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.32 for Miedz Legnica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for Odra Opole and 0.93 for Miedz Legnica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Odra Opole rate 0.38 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Miedz Legnica rate 0.55 and 1.58.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Miedz Legnica, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Odra Opole a 0.1% chance of the title and Miedz Legnica 2.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Odra Opole the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Odra Opole against 0.93 for Miedz Legnica. Odra Opole's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.58 for Miedz Legnica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Odra Opole at home · Miedz Legnica away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Odra Opole 9, Miedz Legnica 9.
Odra Opole score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Miedz Legnica have let in 2 there.
Miedz Legnica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Odra Opole have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Odra Opole
- at Ruch Chorzów16 Oct · I Ligawin 26%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce25 Oct · I Ligawin 37%
- at Polonia Bytom2 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- vs Unia Skierniewice7 Nov · I Ligawin 41%
- at Lechia Gdansk21 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
Miedz Legnica
- vs Stal Mielec17 Oct · I Ligawin 51%
- at Polonia Warszawa23 Oct · I Ligawin 31%
- vs Nieciecza31 Oct · I Ligawin 36%
- at Puszcza Niepołomice7 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- vs ŁKS Łódź21 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.