Stal Rzeszów
vs
Lechia Gdansk
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Stal Rzeszów 1–2 Lechia Gdansk
The model makes it 28% Stal Rzeszów, 27% draw, 45% Lechia Gdansk — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Stal Rzeszów 1.29, Lechia Gdansk 1.99.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stal Rzeszów are 7th on 14 points from 9 games; Lechia Gdansk are 8th on 13 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Stal Rzeszów are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 3-2 win away to Miedz Legnica.
- Lechia Gdansk have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 7-1 win at home to Stal Mielec.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 April 2024, ended Stal Rzeszów 4–2 Lechia Gdansk.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lechia Gdansk at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk
Stal Rzeszów
- W3-2away to Miedz Legnica19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Odra Opole13 September 2026
- W2-1Polonia Warszawa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Unia Skierniewice28 August 2026
- L0-1Ruch Chorzów24 August 2026
Lechia Gdansk
- W7-1Stal Mielec19 September 2026
- W2-1Miedz Legnica13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Nieciecza4 September 2026
- W4-2away to Polonia Warszawa29 August 2026
- W1-0Pogoń Siedlce21 August 2026
What these results say
- Stal Rzeszów won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stal Rzeszów | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
| 8 | Lechia Gdansk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk
- 27 April 2024Stal Rzeszów 4–2 Lechia GdanskI Liga
- 28 October 2023Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
The two sides
Stal Rzeszów carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.52 for Lechia Gdansk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Stal Rzeszów and 1.99 for Lechia Gdansk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stal Rzeszów rate 0.52 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lechia Gdansk rate 0.78 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stal Rzeszów, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stal Rzeszów a 0.2% chance of the title and Lechia Gdansk 26.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lechia Gdansk the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Stal Rzeszów against 1.99 for Lechia Gdansk. Stal Rzeszów's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.52 for Lechia Gdansk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stal Rzeszów at home · Lechia Gdansk away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Stal Rzeszów 9, Lechia Gdansk 9.
Lechia Gdansk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Stal Rzeszów have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stal Rzeszów
- at Pogoń Siedlce18 Oct · I Ligawin 28%
- at Podbeskidzie25 Oct · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice2 Nov · I Ligawin 37%
- at ŁKS Łódź7 Nov · I Ligawin 22%
- vs Polonia Bytom21 Nov · I Ligawin 40%
Lechia Gdansk
- vs Arka Gdynia18 Oct · I Ligawin 46%
- at Puszcza Niepołomice24 Oct · I Ligawin 40%
- vs Unia Skierniewice31 Oct · I Ligawin 59%
- at Polonia Bytom7 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
- vs Odra Opole21 Nov · I Ligawin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.