Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau Challenge League prediction & result
Final score: Stade Nyonnais 2-1 FC Aarau.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Stade Nyonnais, 26% draw, 58% FC Aarau — fair odds of 6.25, 3.85 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Challenge League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Aarau at 58% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau
Stade Nyonnais
- L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026
- L1-3Neuchatel Xamax FC11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Yverdon Sport6 September 2026
- D2-2FC Winterthur1 September 2026
FC Aarau
- L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026
- D2-2SC Kriens12 September 2026
- W3-2Rapperswil4 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC WIL 190031 August 2026
What these results say
- Stade Nyonnais did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Stade Nyonnais conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Stade Nyonnais had three goals or more.
- FC Aarau scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Aarau conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for FC Aarau had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 5 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau
- 9 October 2026Stade Nyonnais 2–1 FC AarauChallenge League
- 7 August 2026FC Aarau 2–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
- 8 May 2026FC Aarau 5–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
- 20 February 2026Stade Nyonnais 1–1 FC AarauChallenge League
- 22 November 2025FC Aarau 0–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
- 22 August 2025Stade Nyonnais 4–5 FC AarauChallenge League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.