Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport Challenge League prediction & result
Final score: Étoile Carouge 0-2 Yverdon Sport.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Étoile Carouge, 30% draw, 39% Yverdon Sport — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Challenge League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Yverdon Sport at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport
Étoile Carouge
- L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026
- L0-1FC Winterthur11 September 2026
- D1-1FC WIL 19004 September 2026
- L0-3away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1 September 2026
Yverdon Sport
- D0-0Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Rapperswil11 September 2026
- W4-1Stade Nyonnais6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Neuchatel Xamax FC1 September 2026
What these results say
- Étoile Carouge did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Étoile Carouge conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Yverdon Sport conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport
- 9 October 2026Étoile Carouge 0–2 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 31 July 2026Yverdon Sport 1–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 3 May 2026Yverdon Sport 3–5 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 20 February 2026Étoile Carouge 2–2 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 30 November 2025Yverdon Sport 2–0 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 12 September 2025Étoile Carouge 2–1 Yverdon SportChallenge League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.