Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur Challenge League prediction & result
Final score: Neuchatel Xamax FC 3-0 FC Winterthur.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Neuchatel Xamax FC, 27% draw, 39% FC Winterthur — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Challenge League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Winterthur at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur
Neuchatel Xamax FC
- L0-3Rapperswil18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Stade Nyonnais11 September 2026
- L0-4away to FC Winterthur4 September 2026
- L1-2Yverdon Sport1 September 2026
FC Winterthur
- W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Étoile Carouge11 September 2026
- W4-0Neuchatel Xamax FC4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Nyonnais1 September 2026
What these results say
- Neuchatel Xamax FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Neuchatel Xamax FC had three goals or more.
- Neuchatel Xamax FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Winterthur went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- FC Winterthur scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Winterthur won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur
- 9 October 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC WinterthurChallenge League
- 4 September 2026FC Winterthur 4–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 27 March 2026FC Winterthur 2–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCFriendlies Clubs
- 14 May 2022FC Winterthur 3–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 18 March 2022Neuchatel Xamax FC 0–0 FC WinterthurChallenge League
- 29 October 2021Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–1 FC WinterthurChallenge League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.