Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Mlada Boleslav, 24% draw, 46% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Sparta Praha at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 59Jiří FloderG
- 13Denis DonátD
- 44Ondrej KarafiatD
- 3Martin KrálikD
- 11Matěj HybšD
- 19David KozelM
- 76Jan ZíkaM
- 20Solomon JohnM
- 28Daniel LanghamerM
- 21Martin ŠubertM
- 23Jiří KlímaF
- 17Filip ŠpatenkaF
- 9Lukáš LetenayF
- 49Josef KoláříkM
- 27Adam KadlecD
- 70Jan BuryanF
- 42Vojtěch VorelG
- 47Marek ObdržálekG
- 24Dominik MarešD
- 26Matěj ZachovalD
- 44Jakub SurovčíkG
- 3Pavel KadeřábekD
- 19Adam ŠevinskýD
- 6Tobias Kvalvagnes GuddalD
- 30Jaroslav ZelenýD
- 38Hugo SochurekM
- 28Roman MacekM
- 24Dominik HollýM
- 36Garang KuolF
- 29Matyáš VojtaF
- 17John MercadoF
- 5Santiago EnemeM
- 10Adam KarabecM
- 7Josimar AlcócerF
- 14Jonatan Braut BrunesF
- 11Matěj RynešD
- 47Krisztián HegyiG
- 25Asger SørensenD
- 15Viktor VitályosD
- 18Andy IrvingM
Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha
Mlada Boleslav
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Sigma Olomouc2 August 2026
- W4-2away to Artis27 July 2026
Sparta Praha
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Lyon4 August 2026
- W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
- L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha
- 3 March 2026Mlada Boleslav 0–0 Sparta PrahaCup
- 22 November 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 27 July 2025Sparta Praha 3–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 13 April 2025Sparta Praha 2–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 10 November 2024Mlada Boleslav 2–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert71
- J. Klíma41
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes62
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mlada Boleslav beat Sparta Praha 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sparta Praha at 46% and given a win for Mlada Boleslav 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Martin Šubert 14' for Mlada Boleslav, Jiří Klíma (penalty) 45+1' for Mlada Boleslav. On expected goals it finished 1.49–0.74.