Mlada Boleslav
vs
Sparta Praha
The model makes it 30% Mlada Boleslav, 24% draw, 46% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.45, Sparta Praha 1.81.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mlada Boleslav
- D2-2away to Sigma Olomouc2 August 2026
- W4-2away to Artis27 July 2026
Sparta Praha
- W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
- L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 | Sparta Praha | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha
- 3 March 2026Mlada Boleslav 0–0 Sparta PrahaCup
- 22 November 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 27 July 2025Sparta Praha 3–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 13 April 2025Sparta Praha 2–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 10 November 2024Mlada Boleslav 2–2 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 18 May 2024Mlada Boleslav 0–5 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers
Mlada Boleslav
- J. Klíma2 goals1 assists
- S. John1 goals2 assists
Sparta Praha
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mlada Boleslav carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.82 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Mlada Boleslav W-D; Sparta Praha L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.81 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mlada Boleslav rate 0.81 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 0.88 and 0.95.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mlada Boleslav, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav against 1.81 for Sparta Praha. Mlada Boleslav's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.95 for Sparta Praha.