St. Truiden
vs
KVC Westerlo
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: St. Truiden 2–1 KVC Westerlo
The model makes it 38% St. Truiden, 26% draw, 36% KVC Westerlo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St. Truiden 1.89, KVC Westerlo 1.81.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are St. Truiden wins, grey are draws, red are KVC Westerlo wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Truiden at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo
St. Truiden
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
- W4-1away to Antwerp30 August 2026
- D3-3away to Cercle Brugge14 August 2026
KVC Westerlo
- W4-2Standard Liege12 September 2026
- W4-0away to KV Mechelen5 September 2026
- D2-2Zulte Waregem30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Lommel United23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Genk15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | St. Truiden | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 8 |
| 13 | KVC Westerlo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo
- 6 February 2026KVC Westerlo 0–4 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 14 September 2025St. Truiden 0–3 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 5 July 2025KVC Westerlo 1–3 St. TruidenFriendlies Clubs
- 11 January 2025KVC Westerlo 1–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 26 October 2024St. Truiden 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 3 May 2024KVC Westerlo 2–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo
St. Truiden
- S. Baždar4 goals
- R. Merlen3 goals3 assists
KVC Westerlo
- S. Saito3 goals
- N. Bassette3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St. Truiden carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.8 for KVC Westerlo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for St. Truiden and 1.81 for KVC Westerlo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Truiden rate 0.91 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KVC Westerlo rate 1.13 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St. Truiden a 0% chance of the title and KVC Westerlo 1.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Truiden the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for St. Truiden against 1.81 for KVC Westerlo. St. Truiden's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.28 for KVC Westerlo.