St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: St. Truiden 0-2 KVC Westerlo.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% St. Truiden, 26% draw, 30% KVC Westerlo — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Jupiler Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Truiden at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo
Line-ups
- 16L. KokuboG
- 60R. VanwesemaelD
- 5S. TaniguchiD
- 26V. MusliuD
- 3T. HataD
- 14R. MerlenM
- 8A. SissakoM
- 38K. MatsuzawaM
- 71R. ArakiM
- 10I. SebaouiM
- 9S. BaždarF
- 21M. LendfersG
- 11N. MbukuF
- 23J. PupeD
- 99S. ShinkawaM
- 4K. TakaiD
- 18N. IshiwatariM
- 33A. DirikenM
- 77O. DioufF
- 22W. JanssensD
- 99A. JungdalG
- 2L. FløD
- 5S. KimuraD
- 4A. LapageD
- 28D. OuregaD
- 45I. FofanaM
- 14C. SandraM
- 20C. CongreveM
- 13I. SakamotoM
- 7S. SaitoM
- 9N. BassetteF
- 17D. AmegnagloF
- 40B. BaloghD
- 11N. Bohamdi-KamoniF
- 26D. DionguM
- 1B. LathouwersG
- 23L. Mbamba-MuandaD
- 10N. StormF
- 8S. SydorchukM
- 39T. Van den KeybusM
Form going into St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo
St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
KVC Westerlo
Jupiler Pro League
- W4-2Standard Liege12 September 2026
- W4-0away to KV Mechelen5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | St. Truiden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | KVC Westerlo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo
- 6 February 2026KVC Westerlo 0–4 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 14 September 2025St. Truiden 0–3 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 5 July 2025KVC Westerlo 1–3 St. TruidenFriendlies Clubs
- 11 January 2025KVC Westerlo 1–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 26 October 2024St. Truiden 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- R. Merlen34
KVC Westerlo
GoalsAssists
- N. Bassette70
- S. Saito51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
KVC Westerlo won 2–0 at St. Truiden. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Truiden at 44% and given a win for KVC Westerlo 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Norman Bassette 36' for KVC Westerlo, Cisse Sandra 46' for KVC Westerlo.
How the call on St. Truiden v KVC Westerlo has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is KVC Westerlo's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- St. Truiden win44%▼ −3
- Draw26%▼ −1
- KVC Westerlo win30%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.