Hradec Králové
vs
Teplice
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Hradec Králové 1–0 Teplice
The model makes it 41% Hradec Králové, 30% draw, 29% Teplice — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hradec Králové 1.48, Teplice 1.06.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hradec Králové vs Teplice
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Hradec Králové wins, grey are draws, red are Teplice wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hradec Králové at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hradec Králové vs Teplice
Hradec Králové
- W2-1away to Zlin13 September 2026
- D0-0Plzen9 September 2026
- W2-1Sparta Praha6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Zbrojovka Brno2 September 2026
- L0-2away to Slovan Liberec30 August 2026
Teplice
- L0-2Slavia Praha13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Zlin6 September 2026
- W2-0FK Jablonec30 August 2026
- L0-2Zbrojovka Brno23 August 2026
- L1-4away to Sparta Praha15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hradec Králové | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Teplice | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Teplice
- 25 April 2026Teplice 0–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 25 October 2025Hradec Králové 0–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 19 April 2025Teplice 1–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 21 July 2024Hradec Králové 1–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 25 May 2024Hradec Králové 2–0 TepliceCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and Teplice
Hradec Králové
- T. Slončík3 goals
Teplice
- John Auta4 goals
- M. Pulkrab3 goals1 assists
- L. Mareček3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hradec Králové carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.58 for Teplice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Hradec Králové and 1.06 for Teplice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hradec Králové rate 0.72 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Teplice rate 0.73 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hradec Králové a 0.2% chance of the title and Teplice 1.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Hradec Králové against 1.06 for Teplice. Hradec Králové's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.26 for Teplice.