20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Manchester City vs Sunderland Premier League prediction & result

Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Full time5 – 3

Final score: Manchester City 5-3 Sunderland.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Manchester City, 30% draw, 23% Sunderland — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Manchester City at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Manchester City99%Draw1%Sunderland0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Dayann Methalie
⚽Enzo Fernández
9'
12'
⚽Brian Brobbeyassist: Enzo Le Fée
⚽Rayan Cherkiassist: Antoine Semenyo
29'
33'
⚽Brian Brobbeyassist: Thomas Meunier
⚽Antoine Semenyoassist: Marc Guehi
43'
⚽Antoine Semenyo
57'
59'
⚽Brian Brobbeyassist: Nilson Angulo
60'
🔁Nilson Anguloout: Malick Fofana
68'
🔁Noah Sadikiout: Wilson Isidor
🔁Iliman Ndiayeout: Jeremy Doku
75'
79'
🔁Thomas Meunierout: Trai Hume
⚽Erling Haalandassist: Josko Gvardiol
81'
•Erling Haaland
83'
🔁Rayan Cherkiout: Nico O'Reilly
85'

Match stats — Manchester City vs Sunderland

55%Possession45%
16Shots17
6On target9
6Corners5

Line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. DonnarummaG
  • 27Matheus NunesD
  • 3Rúben DiasD
  • 6M. GuéhiD
  • 24J. GvardiolD
  • 17E. FernándezM
  • 5E. AndersonM
  • 7I. NdiayeM
  • 10R. CherkiM
  • 42A. SemenyoM
  • 9E. HaalandF
Substitutes
  • 8M. KovačićM
  • 11J. DokuF
  • 32A. BouaddiM
  • 37AllanF
  • 28G. RulliG
  • 21R. Aït-NouriD
  • 33N. O'ReillyD
  • 45A. KhusanovD
  • 82R. LewisD
Coach: E. Maresca
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
  • 22R. RoefsG
  • 20N. MukieleD
  • 4K. DansoD
  • 5D. BallardD
  • 6D. MethalieD
  • 34G. XhakaM
  • 27N. SadikiM
  • 12T. MeunierM
  • 28E. Le FéeM
  • 10N. AnguloM
  • 9B. BrobbeyF
Substitutes
  • 32T. HumeD
  • 13L. O'NienM
  • 15O. AldereteD
  • 29Jules AhokaM
  • 11C. RiggM
  • 7C. TalbiF
  • 39M. FofanaF
  • 31M. EllborgG
  • 18W. IsidorF
Coach: R. Le Bris

Form going into Manchester City vs Sunderland

Manchester City

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Manchester United13 September 2026

Sunderland

Premier League

  • L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Manchester City8701209+1121
20Sunderland8125614-85

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Manchester City vs Sunderland

  • 1 January 2026Sunderland 0–0 Manchester CityPremier League
  • 6 December 2025Manchester City 3–0 SunderlandPremier League
  • 5 March 2017Sunderland 0–2 Manchester CityPremier League
  • 13 August 2016Manchester City 2–1 SunderlandPremier League
  • 2 February 2016Sunderland 0–1 Manchester CityPremier League

The full Manchester City vs Sunderland record →

Leading scorers: Manchester City and Sunderland

Manchester City

GoalsAssists

  • E. Haaland90
  • R. Cherki42

Sunderland

GoalsAssists

  • B. Brobbey30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Manchester City beat Sunderland 5–3. The model had made a win for Manchester City its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Enzo Fernández 9' for Manchester City, Brian Brobbey 12' for Sunderland, Rayan Cherki 29' for Manchester City, Brian Brobbey 33' for Sunderland, Antoine Semenyo 43' for Manchester City, Antoine Semenyo 57' for Manchester City, Brian Brobbey 59' for Sunderland, Erling Haaland 81' for Manchester City.

How the call on Manchester City v Sunderland has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Manchester City's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Manchester City win47%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Sunderland win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.