20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

St. Louis City vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

CITYPARK, St. Louis
Full time3 – 1

Final score: St. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% St. Louis City, 28% draw, 28% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St. Louis City at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Louis City99%Draw1%Toronto FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Walker Zimmerman
Conrad Wallem
28'
⚽C. Holseassist: A. Matan
41'
🔁S. Jeongout: S. Becher
46'
⚽T. Totlandassist: A. Matan
54'
57'
🔁W. Zimmermanout: N. Gomis
62'
🔁N. Dorschout: J. Osorio
62'
🔁M. Cimermancicout: T. Corbeanu
63'
🔁D. Etienneout: Z. Monlouis
⚽S. Becherassist: C. Wallem
68'
Fallou Fall
72'
74'
Alonso Coello
74'
🔁J. Sargentout: L. Morgan
🔁C. Wallemout: D. Polvara
77'
🔁A. Matanout: D. Edelman
78'
🔁Rafael Navarroout: D. Downs
83'
•Damion Downs
90+3'
🔁C. Holseout: T. Ostrak
90+1'
90'
⚽T. Corbeanuassist: A. Coello

Match stats — St. Louis City vs Toronto FC

61%Possession39%
17Shots10
8On target2
8Corners4
2.54xG1.08

Goals against chances

St. Louis City3 from 2.54 xGabout what the chances were worth
Toronto FC1 from 1.08 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Louis City 3-4-3
  • 1R. BurkiG
  • 99J. OrozcoD
  • 32T. BaumgartlD
  • 27F. FallD
  • 6C. WallemM
  • 8C. DurkinM
  • 23A. MatanM
  • 14T. TotlandM
  • 77S. JeongF
  • 9Rafael NavarroF
  • 19C. HolseF
Substitutes
  • 39B. LundtG
  • 5L. MacNaughtonD
  • 20Rafael SantosD
  • 21D. PolvaraM
  • 24D. EdelmanM
  • 7T. OstrakM
  • 59M. JoynerM
  • 42D. DownsF
  • 11S. BecherF
Coach: Yoann Damet
Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 25W. ZimmermanD
  • 13B. KuscevicD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 14A. CoelloM
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 11D. EtienneM
  • 71M. CimermancicM
  • 20D. SalloiM
  • 9J. SargentF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 19K. FranklinD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 90L. MorganF
  • 21J. OsorioM
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 7T. CorbeanuF
  • 17E. AristizabalF
Coach: Robin Fraser

Form going into St. Louis City vs Toronto FC

St. Louis City

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
  • D3-3FC Dallas30 August 2026
  • W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026

Toronto FC

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
  • W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
  • D4-4Chicago Fire5 September 2026
  • D1-1New York City FC29 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Inter Miami22 August 2026

What these results say

  • St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3St. Louis City3214995847+1151
11Toronto FC32912115060-1039

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Toronto FC

  • 8 July 2023Toronto FC 0–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Toronto FC

St. Louis City

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Navarro196

Toronto FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 50 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St. Louis City beat Toronto FC 3–1. The model had made a win for St. Louis City its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: C. Holse 41' for St. Louis City, T. Totland 54' for St. Louis City, S. Becher 68' for St. Louis City, T. Corbeanu 90' for Toronto FC. On expected goals it finished 2.54–1.08.

How the call on St. Louis City v Toronto FC has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. St. Louis City win44%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Toronto FC win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.