20 September 2026, 01:30 UTC

Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result

Dick's Sporting Goods Park, Trade City
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Colorado Rapids 3-3 Seattle Sounders.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Colorado Rapids, 31% draw, 30% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Colorado Rapids at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Colorado Rapids97%Draw3%Seattle Sounders0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Whittakerassist: P. Aaronson
28'
46'
🔁P. Kingstonout: S. Gomez
49'
⚽C. Roldanassist: A. Rusnak
⚽D. Phillip
55'
60'
🔁S. Hawkinsout: J. Ragen
60'
🔁H. Dotsonout: S. Brunell
🔁S. Abu Farkhiout: D. Yapi
63'
Donavan Phillip
69'
71'
🔁Nouhouout: P. Arriola
🔁W. Frederickout: J. Atencio
72'
🔁D. Phillipout: G. Minoungou
72'
⚽M. Whittakerassist: P. Aaronson
76'
Darren Yapi
79'
79'
⚽D. Joveljicassist: S. Gomez
83'
🔁J. Morrisout: C. Clark
🔁P. Aaronsonout: N. Cobb
84'
90'
⚽C. Clarkassist: A. Rusnak

Match stats — Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders

48%Possession52%
18Shots16
7On target6
4Corners6
1.65xG0.95

Goals against chances

Colorado Rapids3 from 1.65 xGmore than the chances were worth
Seattle Sounders3 from 0.95 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Colorado Rapids 4-3-3
  • 41N. HansenG
  • 4R. CannonD
  • 6R. HoldingD
  • 5L. WilliamsD
  • 29M. NavarroD
  • 32D. PhillipM
  • 8H. OjediranM
  • 13W. FrederickM
  • 7M. WhittakerF
  • 9S. Abu FarkhiF
  • 10P. AaronsonF
Substitutes
  • 31A. BeaudryG
  • 99J. TravisD
  • 2K. RosenberryD
  • 24N. CobbD
  • 12J. AtencioM
  • 44C. Aquino
  • 77D. YapiF
  • 93G. MinoungouF
  • 16A. HarrisF
Coach: Matt Wells
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
  • 26A. ThomasG
  • 85K. Kossa-RienziD
  • 16A. RoldanD
  • 39S. HawkinsD
  • 5NouhouD
  • 31H. DotsonM
  • 7C. RoldanM
  • 45P. KingstonM
  • 11A. RusnakM
  • 13J. MorrisM
  • 9D. JoveljicF
Substitutes
  • 24S. FreiG
  • 35A. LopezD
  • 25J. RagenD
  • 4R. SailorD
  • 8C. ClarkM
  • 37S. BrunellM
  • 90S. GomezM
  • 17P. ArriolaF
Coach: Brian Schmetzer

Form going into Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders

Colorado Rapids

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0CF Montreal13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Austin10 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Columbus Crew5 September 2026
  • W1-0Real Salt Lake30 August 2026
  • L0-3away to San Diego23 August 2026

Seattle Sounders

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy13 September 2026
  • D0-0New York Red Bulls6 September 2026
  • D2-2Chicago Fire29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026
  • L1-2Austin20 August 2026

What these results say

  • Seattle Sounders did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Seattle Sounders conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Colorado Rapids32127134443+143
8Seattle Sounders321110114140+143

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders

  • 23 February 2026Seattle Sounders 2–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 17 July 2025Seattle Sounders 3–3 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 27 April 2025Colorado Rapids 1–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 6 October 2024Colorado Rapids 0–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 16 March 2024Seattle Sounders 1–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Colorado Rapids and Seattle Sounders drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Colorado Rapids at 39% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Whittaker 28' for Colorado Rapids, C. Roldan 49' for Seattle Sounders, D. Phillip 55' for Colorado Rapids, M. Whittaker 76' for Colorado Rapids, D. Joveljic 79' for Seattle Sounders, C. Clark 90' for Seattle Sounders. On expected goals it finished 1.65–0.95.

How the call on Colorado Rapids v Seattle Sounders has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is Colorado Rapids's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Colorado Rapids win39%▼ −3
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Seattle Sounders win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.