Nashville SC
vs
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Nashville SC 1–0 Chicago Fire
The model makes it 39% Nashville SC, 30% draw, 31% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Nashville SC 1.44, Chicago Fire 1.17.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Nashville SC wins, grey are draws, red are Chicago Fire wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nashville SC at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
- D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026
- D0-0away to New York City FC4 September 2026
- W4-0FC Cincinnati30 August 2026
- W3-2Columbus Crew23 August 2026
Chicago Fire
- L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
- D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
- D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Nashville SC and Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
- S. Surridge15 goals
- H. Mukhtar10 goals6 assists
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nashville SC carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.55 for Chicago Fire. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Nashville SC and 1.17 for Chicago Fire. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nashville SC rate 0.64 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chicago Fire rate 0.76 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Nashville SC against 1.17 for Chicago Fire. Nashville SC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.38 for Chicago Fire.