20 September 2026, 01:30 UTC

Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result

Geodis Park, Nashville
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Nashville SC 3-0 Chicago Fire.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Nashville SC, 30% draw, 31% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nashville SC at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nashville SC99%Draw1%Chicago Fire0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Surridgeassist: R. Baker-Whiting
33'
Hany Mukhtar
36'
57'
Jack Elliott
68'
🔁R. Lodout: J. Bamba
68'
🔁M. Haile-Selassieout: P. Dithejane
🔁E. Saadout: S. Mohammed
69'
75'
🔁S. Oregelout: A. Mekvabishvili
⚽C. Espinozaassist: A. Najar
78'
79'
🔁D. D'Avillaout: M. Pineda
79'
🔁J. Deanout: J. Gomez
🔁A. Najarout: D. Lovitz
83'
🔁P. Yazbekout: E. Tagseth
83'
⚽H. Mukhtarassist: C. Espinoza
87'
🔁C. Espinozaout: J. Bauer
90+1'
🔁H. Mukhtarout: A. Muyl
90+1'

Match stats — Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire

56%Possession44%
13Shots10
5On target1
5Corners2
2.07xG0.96

Goals against chances

Nashville SC3 from 2.07 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chicago Fire0 from 0.96 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
  • 99B. SchwakeG
  • 31A. NajarD
  • 4J. PalaciosD
  • 3M. WoledziD
  • 27R. Baker-WhitingD
  • 8P. YazbekM
  • 16M. CorcoranM
  • 7C. EspinozaM
  • 10H. MukhtarM
  • 11E. SaadM
  • 9S. SurridgeF
Substitutes
  • 1J. WillisG
  • 5J. MaherD
  • 22J. BauerD
  • 2D. LovitzD
  • 6B. AcostaM
  • 20E. TagsethM
  • 37A. QasemF
  • 14S. MohammedM
  • 19A. MuylM
Coach: Brian Callaghan
Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. BradyG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 32N. AllenD
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 35S. OregelM
  • 42D. D'AvillaM
  • 11P. ZinckernagelM
  • 17R. LodM
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieM
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
Substitutes
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 5S. RogersD
  • 22M. PinedaD
  • 2L. BarrosoD
  • 23A. MekvabishviliM
  • 29D. PorebaM
  • 19J. BambaF
  • 18J. GomezF
  • 12P. DithejaneF
Coach: Mario Barcena

Form going into Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire

Nashville SC

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026
  • D0-0away to New York City FC4 September 2026
  • W4-0FC Cincinnati30 August 2026
  • W3-2Columbus Crew23 August 2026

Chicago Fire

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
  • D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
  • D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Nashville SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Nashville SC had three goals or more.
  • Chicago Fire did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Nashville SC3221836623+4371
4Chicago Fire32157105748+952

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire

  • 5 April 2026Chicago Fire 1–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 June 2025Chicago Fire 0–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 27 April 2025Nashville SC 7–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 20 October 2024Chicago Fire 0–3 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 19 September 2024Nashville SC 1–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Nashville SC and Chicago Fire

Nashville SC

GoalsAssists

  • S. Surridge181
  • H. Mukhtar167

Chicago Fire

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nashville SC beat Chicago Fire 3–0. The model had made a win for Nashville SC its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: S. Surridge 33' for Nashville SC, C. Espinoza 78' for Nashville SC, H. Mukhtar 87' for Nashville SC. On expected goals it finished 2.07–0.96.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.