Sporting Kansas City
vs
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Philadelphia Union
The model makes it 28% Sporting Kansas City, 27% draw, 45% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.34, Philadelphia Union 2.03.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Sporting Kansas City wins, grey are draws, red are Philadelphia Union wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union
Sporting Kansas City
- W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
- L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC23 August 2026
- D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
Philadelphia Union
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
- W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
- W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski12 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sporting Kansas City carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.75 for Philadelphia Union. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 2.03 for Philadelphia Union. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Kansas City rate 0.72 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Philadelphia Union rate 0.93 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City against 2.03 for Philadelphia Union. Sporting Kansas City's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.14 for Philadelphia Union.