Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia Union.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Sporting Kansas City, 27% draw, 45% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 3M. MosqueraD
- 28W. MeyerD
- 18E. KaricD
- 11Andre LuizM
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 14C. HarrisM
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 1J. PulskampG
- 15J. MillerD
- 57Diego BorgesD
- 99J. ReidD
- 16J. BartlettD
- 22Z. BassongD
- 24R. RamosF
- 33O. WolffF
- 29S. ReidF
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44N. PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6C. SullivanM
- 21D. Jean JacquesM
- 4J. LukicM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 31G. MarksG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 16B. BenderM
- 28A. AnelloF
- 23E. AlladohF
- 51M. JakupovicF
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union
Sporting Kansas City
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
- L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC23 August 2026
- D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
- W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
- W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 32 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 38 | 80 | -42 | 22 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union
- 3 March 2024Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 1 April 2023Philadelphia Union 0–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 31 July 2020Philadelphia Union 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 10 March 2019Sporting Kansas City 2–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 23 September 2018Philadelphia Union 2–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union won 4–3 at Sporting Kansas City. The model had made a win for Philadelphia Union its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Andre Luiz 5' for Sporting Kansas City, Andre Luiz 10' for Sporting Kansas City, W. Meyer 16' for Sporting Kansas City, B. Damiani 64' for Philadelphia Union, C. Sullivan 66' for Philadelphia Union, M. Iloski 68' for Philadelphia Union, Z. Bassong (own goal) 73' for Philadelphia Union. On expected goals it finished 1.01–0.65.
How the call on Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 28% / 27% / 45%: the biggest move is Sporting Kansas City's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Sporting Kansas City win28%▼ −4
- Draw27%=
- Philadelphia Union win45%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.