FC Dallas
vs
Austin
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: FC Dallas 1–0 Austin
The model makes it 38% FC Dallas, 30% draw, 32% Austin — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Dallas 1.42, Austin 1.19.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Dallas vs Austin
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FC Dallas wins, grey are draws, red are Austin wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Dallas at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Dallas vs Austin
FC Dallas
- W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC10 September 2026
- W4-3Sporting Kansas City6 September 2026
- D3-3away to St. Louis City30 August 2026
- L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
Austin
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
- D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
- D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 43 |
| 13 | Austin | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Austin
- 17 August 2026Austin 1–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Austin
FC Dallas
- P. Musa18 goals5 assists
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Dallas carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.55 for Austin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for FC Dallas and 1.19 for Austin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Dallas rate 0.65 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austin rate 0.74 and 1.34.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Dallas a 13.8% chance of the title and Austin 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC Dallas against 1.19 for Austin. FC Dallas's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.34 for Austin.