20 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

FC Dallas vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result

Toyota Stadium, Frisco
Full time0 – 0

Final score: FC Dallas 0-0 Austin.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Dallas, 30% draw, 32% Austin — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Dallas at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dallas4%Draw93%Austin3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Mikkel Desler
Shaq Moore
35'
48'
Joseph Rosales
🔁R. Binyaminout: H. Johansson
64'
🔁C. Cappisout: S. Moreno
64'
64'
🔁J. Alastueyout: M. Uzuni
64'
🔁C. Ramirezout: B. Vazquez
72'
🔁J. Rosalesout: B. Hines-Ike
72'
🔁B. Sabovicout: I. Sanchez
🔁J. Valienteout: L. Farrington
81'
86'
🔁M. Deslerout: J. Bell
🔁B. Kamungoout: S. Sarver
87'
Ramiro
90+7'

Match stats — FC Dallas vs Austin

45%Possession55%
12Shots8
4On target3
8Corners6
1.78xG0.26

Goals against chances

FC Dallas0 from 1.78 xGless than the chances were worth
Austin0 from 0.26 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Dallas 3-4-2-1
  • 42DanielG
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 77B. KamungoM
  • 21J. ValienteF
  • 55KaickF
  • 9P. MusaF
Substitutes
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 8P. DelgadoM
  • 33C. HolstadM
  • 10S. MorenoF
  • 28S. SarverF
  • 23L. FarringtonF
Coach: Eric Quill
Austin
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 23Z. KolmanicD
  • 30J. RosalesM
  • 38E. TorresM
  • 14B. SabovicM
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 11F. TorresF
  • 24J. AlastueyF
  • 21C. RamirezF
Substitutes
  • 12D. LasG
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 15J. BellD
  • 35M. DjordjevicD
  • 22C. ApplewhiteD
  • 6I. SanchezM
  • 32M. BurtonM
  • 10M. UzuniF
  • 9B. VazquezF

Form going into FC Dallas vs Austin

FC Dallas

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Minnesota United FC10 September 2026
  • W4-3Sporting Kansas City6 September 2026
  • D3-3away to St. Louis City30 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026

Austin

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
  • D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
  • D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Portland Timbers30 August 2026
  • D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Dallas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Dallas had three goals or more.
  • FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Austin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Austin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Dallas3215985849+954
14Austin32810144159-1834

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Austin

  • 17 August 2026Austin 1–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 14 September 2025FC Dallas 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 17 August 2025Austin 1–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 18 July 2024FC Dallas 3–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 12 May 2024FC Dallas 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Austin

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

Austin

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Dallas and Austin drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Dallas at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.78–0.26.

How the call on FC Dallas v Austin has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is FC Dallas's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. FC Dallas win38%▼ −4
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Austin win32%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.