Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Houston Dynamo 2-2 FC Cincinnati.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Houston Dynamo, 29% draw, 29% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Houston Dynamo at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31J. BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 3Antonio CarlosD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 21F. NegriD
- 11L. EnnaliM
- 6ArturM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 20GuilhermeF
- 30A. BouzatF
- 35L. Erb
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 18D. SamassekouM
- 14D. HolmesM
- 22M. AranaM
- 37G. RiveraD
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 23D. McGuireF
- 24I. AliyuF
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 12M. RobinsonD
- 4N. HagglundD
- 11S. GidiD
- 66E. EcheniqueM
- 20P. BuchaM
- 5O. NwobodoM
- 17K. MbomaM
- 22G. ValenzuelaF
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 10EvanderF
- 13E. LouroG
- 15T. HadebeD
- 2A. PowellD
- 24K. SmithD
- 88A. ChirilaD
- 99A. JabbariF
- 29B. J. Ramirez LeonD
- 14K. FletcherF
- 16T. BarlowF
Form going into Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati
Houston Dynamo
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
- D0-0San Jose Earthquakes30 August 2026
- L1-2away to St. Louis City23 August 2026
FC Cincinnati
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Philadelphia Union9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Nashville SC30 August 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders22 August 2026
- W2-1New York City FC19 August 2026
What these results say
- Houston Dynamo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 42 | 39 | +3 | 51 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 66 | 73 | -7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati
- 28 January 2026Houston Dynamo 1–1 FC CincinnatiFriendlies Clubs
- 30 January 2025FC Cincinnati 1–1 Houston DynamoFriendlies Clubs
- 26 February 2023FC Cincinnati 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 4 July 2021Houston Dynamo 1–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2019FC Cincinnati 3–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and FC Cincinnati
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey173
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Houston Dynamo and FC Cincinnati drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Houston Dynamo at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Guilherme 38' for Houston Dynamo, M. Bogusz (penalty) 50' for Houston Dynamo, B. J. Ramirez Leon 73' for FC Cincinnati, K. Denkey (penalty) 90' for FC Cincinnati. On expected goals it finished 1.20–2.85.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.