Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Real Salt Lake 0-3 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Real Salt Lake, 29% draw, 38% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 2D. YedlinD
- 26P. QuintonD
- 3K. HenryD
- 12S. LobjanidzeM
- 25C. GuskeM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 22S. SolansF
- 9M. GuilavoguiF
- 31M. StajduharG
- 98A. KatranisD
- 29S. JunquaD
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 14E. EneliM
- 18T. BoothF
- 11D. MarczukF
- 13J. ShokalookF
- 70Lineker RodriguesF
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18E. OcampoD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 6R. PrisoD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 59J. BadwalM
- 8O. LarrazM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 13T. MullerM
- 77Y. DiabyM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 3S. AdekugbeD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 14B. CaicedoF
- 25R. GauldM
- 70R. ModestoM
- 23A. CvetkovicM
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 7C. SabalyF
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Real Salt Lake
All competitions we cover
- L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Orlando City SC22 August 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Austin13 September 2026
- W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sporting Kansas City30 August 2026
- W5-0FC Dallas23 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Salt Lake did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 42 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 33 | +34 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 22 February 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2025Real Salt Lake 2–3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 4 May 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Real Salt Lake 2–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and Vancouver Whitecaps
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans144
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White182
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vancouver Whitecaps won 3–0 at Real Salt Lake. The model had made a win for Vancouver Whitecaps its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: B. White 9' for Vancouver Whitecaps, T. Muller 29' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Y. Diaby 63' for Vancouver Whitecaps. On expected goals it finished 1.16–2.21.
How the call on Real Salt Lake v Vancouver Whitecaps has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 29% / 38%: the biggest move is Real Salt Lake's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Real Salt Lake win33%▼ −3
- Draw29%=
- Vancouver Whitecaps win38%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.