Real Salt Lake
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Real Salt Lake 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
The model makes it 32% Real Salt Lake, 29% draw, 39% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.29, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.54.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Real Salt Lake wins, grey are draws, red are Vancouver Whitecaps wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Real Salt Lake
- L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Orlando City SC22 August 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- L1-2Austin13 September 2026
- W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sporting Kansas City30 August 2026
- W5-0FC Dallas23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 29 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | +30 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and Vancouver Whitecaps
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Vancouver Whitecaps
- B. White15 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Real Salt Lake carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.55 for Vancouver Whitecaps. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.54 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Salt Lake rate 0.62 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.70 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Salt Lake a 0% chance of the title and Vancouver Whitecaps 66%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Real Salt Lake against 1.54 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Real Salt Lake's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.28 for Vancouver Whitecaps.