St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 1-1 Real Salt Lake.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% St. Louis City, 25% draw, 17% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 58% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Roman BürkiG
- 5Lukas MacNaughtonD
- 32Timo BaumgartlD
- 21Dante PolvaraD
- 6Conrad WallemM
- 24Daniel EdelmanM
- 8Christopher DurkinM
- 14Tomas TotlandM
- 77Jeong Sang-binF
- 10Eduard LöwenF
- 11Simon BecherF
- 23Alexandru MățanM
- 17Marcel HartelM
- 7Tomáš OstrákM
- 29Palmer AultM
- 39Benjamin LundtG
- 27Fallou FallD
- 28Miguel PerezM
- 59Mykhi JoynerM
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 2DeAndre YedlinD
- 26Philip QuintonD
- 29Sam JunquaD
- 23Zach BoothM
- 27Griffin DillonM
- 92Noel CaliskanM
- 8Juan SanabriaM
- 10Diego LunaF
- 70Lineker RodriguesF
- 22Sergi SolansF
- 6Stijn SpieringsM
- 12Saba LobzhanidzeM
- 17Victor OlatunjiF
- 11Dominik MarczukF
- 39Aiden HezarkhaniF
- 31Mason StajduharG
- 4Lukas EngelD
- 98Alexandros KatranisD
- 21Juan Jose AriasD
Form going into St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
Real Salt Lake
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 51 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
- 19 October 2025St. Louis City 2–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2025Real Salt Lake 3–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 5 February 2025St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs
- 31 March 2024Real Salt Lake 3–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 25 February 2024St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans144
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Louis City at 58% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Solans 60' for Real Salt Lake, M. Hartel 73' for St. Louis City. On expected goals it finished 1.71–1.24.