St. Louis City
vs
Real Salt Lake
The model makes it 58% St. Louis City, 25% draw, 17% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.67, Real Salt Lake 0.77.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake
- 19 October 2025St. Louis City 2–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2025Real Salt Lake 3–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 5 February 2025St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeFriendlies Clubs
- 31 March 2024Real Salt Lake 3–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 25 February 2024St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 22 June 2023St. Louis City 1–3 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for St. Louis City against 0.77 for Real Salt Lake. St. Louis City's attack/defence rating is 0.66/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.34 for Real Salt Lake.