Colorado Rapids vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Colorado Rapids 1-0 Austin.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Colorado Rapids, 26% draw, 22% Austin — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colorado Rapids at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Colorado Rapids vs Austin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41Nicholas Defreitas-HansenG
- 4Reggie CannonD
- 22Lucas HerringtonD
- 5Loïc WilliamsD
- 29Miguel NavarroD
- 13Wayne FrederickM
- 8Hamzat OjediranM
- 7Dante SealyM
- 10Paxten AaronsonM
- 93Georgi MinoungouM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 12Josh AtencioM
- 77Darren YapiF
- 32Donavan PhillipF
- 2Keegan RosenberryD
- 16Alex HarrisF
- 31Adam BeaudryG
- 24Noah CobbD
- 33Kosi ThompsonD
- 47Sydney WathutaF
- 1Brad StuverG
- 35Mateja ĐorđevićD
- 4Brendan Hines-IkeD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30Joseph RosalesM
- 14Besard SabovićM
- 33Owen WolffM
- 17Jon GallagherM
- 11Facundo TorresF
- 9Brandon VázquezF
- 10Myrto UzuniF
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 38Ervin TorresM
- 77Przemysław PłachetaM
- 7Jayden NelsonF
- 21Christian RamirezF
- 12Damian LasG
- 5Oleksandr SvatokD
- 23Žan KolmaničD
- 24Jorge AlastueyM
Form going into Colorado Rapids vs Austin
Colorado Rapids
- L0-1away to St. Louis City26 July 2026
- W1-0San Diego23 July 2026
Austin
- L0-3away to Houston Dynamo26 July 2026
- W3-1Seattle Sounders23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 35 |
| 13 | Austin | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs Austin
- 2 August 2026Colorado Rapids 1–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 8 June 2025Colorado Rapids 0–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Austin 0–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Austin 3–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 16 June 2024Colorado Rapids 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 1 October 2023Colorado Rapids 1–0 AustinMajor League Soccer