2 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result

Soldier Field, Chicago
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Chicago Fire 2-1 Charlotte.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Chicago Fire, 27% draw, 27% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Chicago Fire at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chicago Fire97%Draw3%Charlotte0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. Saletros
10'
18'
⚽P. Bielassist: I. Toklomati
⚽R. Lewandowskiassist: P. Zinckernagel
20'
J. Waterman
59'
⚽R. Lewandowskiassist: R. Lod
68'
69'
🔁H. Toffoloout: D. Schnegg
🔁J. Bambaout: P. Dithejane
74'
77'
🔁L. Abadaout: R. Aloko
86'
🔁L. de la Torreout: B. Bronico
86'
🔁I. Toklomatiout: A. Goodwin
🔁R. Lodout: M. Haile-Selassie
88'
🔁D. D'Avillaout: M. Pineda
88'
R. Lewandowski
90+5'

Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Charlotte

46%Possession54%
14Shots14
5On target1
8Corners6
1.59xG0.83

Goals against chances

Chicago Fire2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth
Charlotte1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chicago Fire 4-4-2
  • 1Chris BradyG
  • 2Leonardo BarrosoD
  • 16Joel WatermanD
  • 3Jack ElliottD
  • 15Andrew GutmanD
  • 11Philip ZinckernagelM
  • 42Dje Tah D'AvillaM
  • 6Anton SalétrosM
  • 19Jonathan BambaM
  • 9Robert LewandowskiF
  • 17Robin LodF
Substitutes
  • 12Puso DithejaneF
  • 22Mauricio PinedaD
  • 7Maren Haile-SelassieM
  • 44Josh CohenG
  • 24Jonathan DeanD
  • 14Viktor RadojevićD
  • 5Samuel RogersD
  • 35Sergio OregelM
  • 20Jason ShokalookF
Coach: Mario Barcena
Charlotte 4-3-3
  • 1Kristijan KahlinaG
  • 14Nathan ByrneD
  • 44Morrison AgyemangD
  • 22Henry KesslerD
  • 15Harry ToffoloD
  • 17Luca De La TorreM
  • 8Ashley WestwoodM
  • 28Djibril DianiM
  • 16Pep BielF
  • 9Idan ToklomatiF
  • 11Liel AbadaF
Substitutes
  • 23David SchneggD
  • 37Rodolfo AlokoF
  • 13Brandt BronicoM
  • 7Archie GoodwinF
  • 21Tyler MillerG
  • 4Andrew PrivettD
  • 35Will ClearyD
  • 20Baye CoulibalyM
  • 25Tyger SmallsF
Coach: Dean Smith

Form going into Chicago Fire vs Charlotte

Chicago Fire

  • L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026
  • L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026

Charlotte

  • W2-0away to New York Red Bulls25 July 2026
  • D2-2Atlanta United FC23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Charlotte

  • 2 August 2026Chicago Fire 2–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 29 June 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 17 May 2025Charlotte 1–4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 2 October 2024Charlotte 4–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 16 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 8 October 2023Chicago Fire 0–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Charlotte

Chicago Fire

  • H. Cuypers13 goals

Charlotte

  • Pep Biel11 goals6 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.