Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Chicago Fire 2-1 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Chicago Fire, 27% draw, 27% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Chris BradyG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 16Joel WatermanD
- 3Jack ElliottD
- 15Andrew GutmanD
- 11Philip ZinckernagelM
- 42Dje Tah D'AvillaM
- 6Anton SalétrosM
- 19Jonathan BambaM
- 9Robert LewandowskiF
- 17Robin LodF
- 12Puso DithejaneF
- 22Mauricio PinedaD
- 7Maren Haile-SelassieM
- 44Josh CohenG
- 24Jonathan DeanD
- 14Viktor RadojevićD
- 5Samuel RogersD
- 35Sergio OregelM
- 20Jason ShokalookF
- 1Kristijan KahlinaG
- 14Nathan ByrneD
- 44Morrison AgyemangD
- 22Henry KesslerD
- 15Harry ToffoloD
- 17Luca De La TorreM
- 8Ashley WestwoodM
- 28Djibril DianiM
- 16Pep BielF
- 9Idan ToklomatiF
- 11Liel AbadaF
- 23David SchneggD
- 37Rodolfo AlokoF
- 13Brandt BronicoM
- 7Archie GoodwinF
- 21Tyler MillerG
- 4Andrew PrivettD
- 35Will ClearyD
- 20Baye CoulibalyM
- 25Tyger SmallsF
Form going into Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
Chicago Fire
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026
- L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026
Charlotte
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to New York Red Bulls25 July 2026
- D2-2Atlanta United FC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 57 | 48 | +9 | 52 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
- 29 June 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 17 May 2025Charlotte 1–4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Charlotte 4–3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 16 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 8 October 2023Chicago Fire 0–2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Charlotte
Chicago Fire
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chicago Fire beat Charlotte 2–1. The model had made a win for Chicago Fire its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: P. Biel 18' for Charlotte, R. Lewandowski 20' for Chicago Fire, R. Lewandowski 68' for Chicago Fire. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.83.