Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 18 · 2 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC vs San Diego

Allianz Field, Saint Paul

The model makes it 61% Minnesota United FC, 20% draw, 19% San Diego — fair odds of 1.64, 5.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 2.27, San Diego 1.21.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

63%
Both teams to score
68%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 10%1-1 9%2-0 8%

Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs San Diego

  • 12 April 2026San Diego 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 25 November 2025San Diego 1–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 14 September 2025San Diego 1–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 June 2025Minnesota United FC 2–4 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Minnesota United FC the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Minnesota United FC against 1.21 for San Diego. Minnesota United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.67 for San Diego.