Minnesota United FC vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 1-1 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Minnesota United FC, 20% draw, 19% San Diego — fair odds of 1.64, 5.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 61% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Drake CallenderG
- 3Kyle DuncanD
- 28Jefferson DíazD
- 15Michael BoxallD
- 23Morris DugganD
- 13Anthony MarkanichD
- 26Joaquín PereyraM
- 20Wil TrappM
- 30Owen GeneM
- 8Tomás ChancalayM
- 29Mamadou DiengF
- 2Devin PadelfordD
- 9Kelvin YeboahF
- 18Mauricio GonzálezF
- 21Bongokuhle HlongwaneF
- 1Alec SmirG
- 24Julian GresselM
- 67Carlos HarveyM
- 7Dominik FitzM
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 1CJ Dos SantosG
- 3Dagur Dan ÞórhallssonD
- 97Christopher McVeyD
- 26Manu DuahD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 70Alejandro Alvarado JrM
- 6Jeppe TverskovM
- 8Onni ValakariM
- 10Anders DreyerF
- 7Marcus IngvartsenF
- 19David VazquezF
- 27Luca BombinoD
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 77Alex MightenF
- 20Aníbal GodoyM
- 18Duran FerreeG
- 33Oscar VerhoevenD
- 25Ian PilcherD
- 9Lewis MorganF
- 14Bryan ZambléF
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs San Diego
Minnesota United FC
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Kansas City23 July 2026
San Diego
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 29 |
| 9 | San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs San Diego
- 2 August 2026Minnesota United FC 1–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2026San Diego 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 25 November 2025San Diego 1–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2025San Diego 1–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 June 2025Minnesota United FC 2–4 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and San Diego
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah13 goals2 assists
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.