Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 0-2 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Sporting Kansas City, 27% draw, 25% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Kansas City at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Stefan ClevelandG
- 8Jacob DavisD
- 3Moises MosqueraD
- 5Or BlorianD
- 18Emir KarićD
- 4Lasse Berg JohnsenM
- 22Zorhan BassongM
- 7CapitaM
- 20Kwaku AgyabengM
- 11Calvin HarrisM
- 9Dejan JoveljićF
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 99Jayden ReidD
- 6Manu GarcíaM
- 93Shapi SuleymanovF
- 16Jacob BartlettD
- 1John PulskampG
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 2Ian JamesD
- 17Stephen AfrifaF
- 31Jonathan BondG
- 11Lawrence EnnaliD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 34Agustin ReschD
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 6ArturM
- 16Héctor HerreraM
- 8Jack McGlynnM
- 30Agustín BouzatM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 10Ezequiel PonceF
- 23Duncan McGuireF
- 21Franco NegriD
- 14Duane HolmesM
- 18Diadié SamassékouM
- 9Ondrej LingrM
- 26Blake GillinghamG
- 28Erik SviatchenkoD
- 22Matthew AranaM
- 24Ibrahim AliyuF
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo
Sporting Kansas City
- L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
- W2-1Minnesota United FC23 July 2026
- L2-3away to St. Louis City17 July 2026
Houston Dynamo
- W3-0Austin26 July 2026
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo
- 2 August 2026Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 19 October 2025Sporting Kansas City 0–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 1 June 2025Houston Dynamo 1–3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 12 May 2024Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 25 February 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 27 November 2023Houston Dynamo 1–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and Houston Dynamo
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme13 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.