Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 18 · 2 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo

Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City

The model makes it 48% Sporting Kansas City, 27% draw, 25% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.52, Houston Dynamo 1.01.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

50%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%2-1 9%

Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo

  • 19 October 2025Sporting Kansas City 0–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 1 June 2025Houston Dynamo 1–3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 12 May 2024Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 25 February 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 27 November 2023Houston Dynamo 1–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 24 September 2023Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sporting Kansas City the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City against 1.01 for Houston Dynamo. Sporting Kansas City's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.24 for Houston Dynamo.