Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Portland Timbers 2-1 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Portland Timbers, 19% draw, 14% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 67% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41James PantemisG
- 5Brandon ByeD
- 20Finn SurmanD
- 4Kamal MillerD
- 27Jímer ForyD
- 21Diego CharáM
- 7Ariel LassiterM
- 17Cole BassettM
- 10David Pereira Da CostaM
- 99Kristoffer VeldeM
- 19Kevin KelsyF
- 11Antony AlvesF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 30José CaicedoM
- 22Omir FernandezF
- 25Trey MuseG
- 16Sawyer JuraD
- 6Alex BonetigD
- 15Eric MillerD
- 80Joao OrtízM
- 26Andrew ThomasG
- 17Paul ArriolaD
- 20Kim Kee-heeD
- 39Stuart HawkinsD
- 5Nouhou ToloD
- 37Snyder BrunellM
- 45Peter KingstonM
- 9Jesús FerreiraM
- 11Albert RusnákM
- 14Paul RothrockM
- 95Osaze De RosarioF
- 85Kalani Kossa-RienziM
- 90Sebastian GomezM
- 16Alex RoldánD
- 19Daniel MusovskiF
- 35Antino LopezD
- 24Stefan FreiG
- 40Shane O'NeillM
- 4Ryan SailorD
Form going into Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
- W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026
- D2-2FC Dallas23 July 2026
- W5-1away to Seattle Sounders17 July 2026
Seattle Sounders
- L0-1away to Philadelphia Union25 July 2026
- L1-3away to Austin23 July 2026
- L1-5Portland Timbers17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
- 2 August 2026Portland Timbers 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2026Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2025Portland Timbers 1–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Seattle Sounders 1–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024Portland Timbers 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer