Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Portland Timbers 2-1 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Portland Timbers, 19% draw, 14% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 67% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41James PantemisG
- 5Brandon ByeD
- 20Finn SurmanD
- 4Kamal MillerD
- 27Jímer ForyD
- 21Diego CharáM
- 7Ariel LassiterM
- 17Cole BassettM
- 10David Pereira Da CostaM
- 99Kristoffer VeldeM
- 19Kevin KelsyF
- 11Antony AlvesF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 30José CaicedoM
- 22Omir FernandezF
- 25Trey MuseG
- 16Sawyer JuraD
- 6Alex BonetigD
- 15Eric MillerD
- 80Joao OrtízM
- 26Andrew ThomasG
- 17Paul ArriolaD
- 20Kim Kee-heeD
- 39Stuart HawkinsD
- 5Nouhou ToloD
- 37Snyder BrunellM
- 45Peter KingstonM
- 9Jesús FerreiraM
- 11Albert RusnákM
- 14Paul RothrockM
- 95Osaze De RosarioF
- 85Kalani Kossa-RienziM
- 90Sebastian GomezM
- 16Alex RoldánD
- 19Daniel MusovskiF
- 35Antino LopezD
- 24Stefan FreiG
- 40Shane O'NeillM
- 4Ryan SailorD
Form going into Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026
- D2-2FC Dallas23 July 2026
- W5-1away to Seattle Sounders17 July 2026
Seattle Sounders
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Philadelphia Union25 July 2026
- L1-3away to Austin23 July 2026
- L1-5Portland Timbers17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 57 | 60 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
- 17 July 2026Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2025Portland Timbers 1–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Seattle Sounders 1–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024Portland Timbers 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Portland Timbers beat Seattle Sounders 2–1. The model had made a win for Portland Timbers its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: K. Kossa-Rienzi 27' for Seattle Sounders, K. Kelsy 41' for Portland Timbers, B. Bye 82' for Portland Timbers. On expected goals it finished 1.71–1.22.