St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 6-2 Los Angeles Galaxy.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% St. Louis City, 23% draw, 20% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
St. Louis City at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. BürkiG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 6C. WallemM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 23A. MățanF
- 28M. PerezM
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 11S. BecherF
- 42D. DownsF
- 27F. FallD
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 39B. LundtG
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 7T. OstrákM
- 12J. MarcinkowskiG
- 26Harbor MillerD
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 15J. HaakD
- 3J. AudeD
- 17P. RuizM
- 27E. ThommyM
- 6Sergi RobertoM
- 76T. ElgersmaF
- 7K. FuruhashiF
- 21R. TaylorF
- 25C. GarcésD
- 1N. MićovićG
- 14J. NelsonD
- 28J. PaintsilF
- 18M. ReusM
- 8L. SanabriaM
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 2CalegariD
- 99KlaussF
Form going into St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Colorado Rapids27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Minnesota United FC20 September 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps10 September 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution6 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for St. Louis City had three goals or more.
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 23 July 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 11 February 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0 St. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs
- 14 June 2025St. Louis City 3–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 50 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City beat Los Angeles Galaxy 6–2. The model had made a win for St. Louis City its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Carlo Holse 2' for St. Louis City, Carlo Holse 7' for St. Louis City, Carlo Holse 21' for St. Louis City, Robert Taylor 31' for Los Angeles Galaxy, Rafael Navarro Leal (penalty) 45' for St. Louis City, Lukas MacNaughton 45+7' for St. Louis City, Rafael Navarro Leal 53' for St. Louis City, Klauss 71' for Los Angeles Galaxy. On expected goals it finished 2.63–1.99.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave St. Louis City a 25.1% chance to finish top of the Western Conference: 29.4% after a win, 18.6% after a draw, 14.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.4%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.
For Los Angeles Galaxy the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.0% going in: 1.6% after a win, 6.6% after a draw, 11.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.2%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on St. Louis City v Los Angeles Galaxy has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 23% / 20%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- St. Louis City win57%▲ +7
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Los Angeles Galaxy win20%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.