St. Louis City
vs
Los Angeles Galaxy
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles Galaxy
The model makes it 50% St. Louis City, 26% draw, 24% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: St. Louis City 2.22, Los Angeles Galaxy 1.20.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 50% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
- D3-3FC Dallas30 August 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
- W3-2Colorado Rapids27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Minnesota United FC20 September 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps10 September 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution6 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 23 July 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
- Rafael Navarro14 goals3 assists
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
St. Louis City carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.4 for Los Angeles Galaxy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for St. Louis City and 1.20 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Louis City rate 0.81 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.61 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St. Louis City a 6.9% chance of the title and Los Angeles Galaxy 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for St. Louis City against 1.2 for Los Angeles Galaxy. St. Louis City's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.5 for Los Angeles Galaxy.