Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Colorado Rapids 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Colorado Rapids, 26% draw, 34% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Colorado Rapids at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41N. DefreitasG
- 4R. CannonD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 5Loïc WilliamsD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 12J. AtencioM
- 7M. WhittakerM
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 32D. PhillipF
- 9S. FarhiF
- 10P. AaronsonF
- 77D. YapiF
- 93G. MinoungouF
- 11I. SadiqF
- 99J. TravisD
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 24N. CobbD
- 31A. BeaudryG
- 8H. OjediranM
- 33K. ThompsonD
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 3P. MarieD
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 5D. MunieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 87Vítor CostaD
- 23E. LöwenM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 19P. JuddF
- 11T. WernerF
- 20N. FernandezM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 28B. KikanovicF
- 31Francesco MontaliG
- 2J. RickettsD
- 7O. BoudaF
- 21N. BuckM
Form going into Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Los Angeles Galaxy27 September 2026
- D3-3Seattle Sounders20 September 2026
- W1-0CF Montreal13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Austin10 September 2026
- L0-3away to Columbus Crew5 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
- W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
What these results say
- Colorado Rapids failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Colorado Rapids | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 43 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 21 May 2026Colorado Rapids 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesUS Open Cup
- 11 May 2025Colorado Rapids 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 12 May 2024Colorado Rapids 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–3 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 47 league goals as a side.
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd172
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Colorado Rapids at 40% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Donavan Phillip 27' for Colorado Rapids, Dave Romney 57' for San Jose Earthquakes. On expected goals it finished 1.15–0.78.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Colorado Rapids a 5.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.6% after a win, 5.4% after a draw, 10.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 5.4%.
For San Jose Earthquakes the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 55.7% going in: 71.6% after a win, 54.3% after a draw, 44.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 54.3%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Colorado Rapids v San Jose Earthquakes has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Colorado Rapids's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Colorado Rapids win40%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −2
- San Jose Earthquakes win34%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.