Los Angeles FC
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Los Angeles FC 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
The model makes it 35% Los Angeles FC, 29% draw, 36% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.37, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.38.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Los Angeles FC and Vancouver Whitecaps are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles FC
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
- W2-0New York Red Bulls10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
- L1-2Austin13 September 2026
- W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 41 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 26 | +33 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 August 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles FC
- D. Bouanga14 goals5 assists
Vancouver Whitecaps
- B. White16 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Los Angeles FC carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.73 for Vancouver Whitecaps. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Los Angeles FC and 1.38 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles FC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.88 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Los Angeles FC a 0.1% chance of the title and Vancouver Whitecaps 75.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Los Angeles FC against 1.38 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Los Angeles FC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.12 for Vancouver Whitecaps.