Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles FC 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Los Angeles FC, 27% draw, 35% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Los Angeles FC at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. LlorisG
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 4E. SeguraD
- 23Y. CheberkoD
- 20S. VasquezM
- 66M. ChoinièreM
- 9A. SiebM
- 7Son Heung-MinM
- 18J. ShaffelburgM
- 99D. BouangaF
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 91N. TafariD
- 19T. BoydF
- 6Igor JesusM
- 81L. WaltaM
- 43ThayllonF
- 33A. LongD
- 12T. HasalG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18É. OcampoD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 6R. PrisoD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 20A. CubasM
- 8O. LarrazM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 25R. GauldM
- 77Y. DiabyM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 4R. VeselinovićD
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezF
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 7C. SabalyF
- 23A. CvetkovićM
- 2M. LabordaD
- 70Rui ModestoM
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
- W2-0New York Red Bulls10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Chicago Fire7 October 2026
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
- L1-2Austin13 September 2026
- W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 47 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 34 | +40 | 64 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 August 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 23 November 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 30 June 2025Los Angeles FC 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 9 November 2024Los Angeles FC 1–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White202
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Los Angeles FC and Vancouver Whitecaps drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Los Angeles FC at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Oliver Love Larraz 43' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Denis Bouanga 46' for Los Angeles FC. Sent off: Tristan Blackmon (Vancouver Whitecaps) 6'. On expected goals it finished 1.22–1.06.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Los Angeles FC a 21.4% chance to finish in the top four: 34.2% after a win, 15.9% after a draw, 10.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.9%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.
For Vancouver Whitecaps the question was the chance to finish top of the Western Conference, 64.4% going in: 77.4% after a win, 61.8% after a draw, 54.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.8%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Los Angeles FC v Vancouver Whitecaps has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Los Angeles FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Los Angeles FC win38%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Vancouver Whitecaps win35%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.