Minnesota United FC
vs
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Minnesota United FC 1–0 Houston Dynamo
The model makes it 36% Minnesota United FC, 30% draw, 34% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 1.37, Houston Dynamo 1.28.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
Houston Dynamo
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
What these results say
- Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah14 goals2 assists
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme14 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Minnesota United FC carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.54 for Houston Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.28 for Houston Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Minnesota United FC rate 0.70 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Houston Dynamo rate 0.53 and 1.07.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Houston Dynamo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Minnesota United FC a 0% chance of the title and Houston Dynamo 1.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Minnesota United FC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Minnesota United FC against 1.28 for Houston Dynamo. Minnesota United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.07 for Houston Dynamo.