Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 2-2 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Minnesota United FC, 28% draw, 34% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Minnesota United FC at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CallenderG
- 52Cherrion ValeriusD
- 15M. BoxallD
- 23M. DugganD
- 21B. HlongwaneM
- 30O. GeneM
- 20W. TrappM
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 16A. JacksonF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 25N. TriantisD
- 3K. DuncanD
- 18M. GonzalezF
- 67C. HarveyM
- 11M. MaloneF
- 94Kayne RizvanovichG
- 5N. RomeroD
- 27D. TaylorD
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 31J. BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 6ArturM
- 30A. BouzatM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 9L. FosterF
- 20GuilhermeF
- 22M. AranaM
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 14D. HolmesM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 21F. NegriD
- 37G. RiveraM
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
Houston Dynamo
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
What these results say
- Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 44 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
- 26 June 2025Minnesota United FC 3–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2025Houston Dynamo 2–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024Minnesota United FC 1–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2023Houston Dynamo 0–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah184
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Minnesota United FC at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lyle Foster 18' for Houston Dynamo, Kelvin Yeboah 48' for Minnesota United FC, Marcus Caldeira 78' for Minnesota United FC, Duncan McGuire 90+2' for Houston Dynamo. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.68.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Minnesota United FC a 60.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 45.7% after a win, 64.3% after a draw, 74.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 64.3%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.
For Houston Dynamo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.7% going in: 57.4% after a win, 38.1% after a draw, 28.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.1%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Minnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Minnesota United FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Minnesota United FC win38%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Houston Dynamo win34%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.