Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Portland Timbers.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Sporting Kansas City, 23% draw, 43% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Portland Timbers at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 18E. KarićD
- 11André LuizM
- 22Z. BassongM
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 14C. HarrisM
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 16J. BartlettD
- 23E. BartlowD
- 2I. JamesD
- 12J. KortkampG
- 1J. PulskampG
- 24R. RamosF
- 99J. ReidD
- 29S. ReidF
- 93M. SuleymanovF
- 41J. PantemisG
- 12R. HernándezD
- 2J. WatermanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 27J. ForyD
- 80J. OrtizM
- 21D. CharáM
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 7A. LassiterF
- 14V. JanssenF
- 99K. VeldeF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 25T. MuseG
- 15E. MillerD
- 73Eric IzoitaM
- 22O. FernandezF
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 17C. BassettM
- 28A. AravenaF
- 11AntonyF
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
Sporting Kansas City
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
- L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
Portland Timbers
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
- L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
- D2-2St. Louis City10 September 2026
- W5-4Minnesota United FC6 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Kansas City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Kansas City had three goals or more.
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 40 | 81 | -41 | 26 |
| 7 | Portland Timbers | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
- 10 May 2026Portland Timbers 6–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2025Portland Timbers 1–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 13 April 2025Sporting Kansas City 2–4 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 26 May 2024Portland Timbers 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 7 April 2024Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Portland Timbers at 43% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: David Da Costa 10' for Portland Timbers, Vincent Janssen (penalty) 45+4' for Portland Timbers, André Luiz 45+7' for Sporting Kansas City, Ariel Lassiter 64' for Portland Timbers, Justin Reynolds 70' for Sporting Kansas City, André Luiz 72' for Sporting Kansas City. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.45.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Portland Timbers a 23.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.4% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 34.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.4%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 23% / 43%: the biggest move is Portland Timbers's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sporting Kansas City win34%=
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Portland Timbers win43%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.