Sporting Kansas City
vs
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Portland Timbers
The model makes it 34% Sporting Kansas City, 26% draw, 40% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.87, Portland Timbers 2.11.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 40% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
Sporting Kansas City
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
- L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026
Portland Timbers
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
- L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
- D2-2St. Louis City10 September 2026
- W5-4Minnesota United FC6 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Kansas City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Kansas City had three goals or more.
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 31 | 63 | -32 | 21 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Sporting Kansas City carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.45 for Portland Timbers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 2.11 for Portland Timbers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Kansas City rate 0.63 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portland Timbers rate 0.73 and 1.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portland Timbers the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City against 2.11 for Portland Timbers. Sporting Kansas City's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.62 for Portland Timbers.