Seattle Sounders
vs
CF Montreal
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Seattle Sounders 1–0 CF Montreal
The model makes it 46% Seattle Sounders, 28% draw, 26% CF Montreal — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Seattle Sounders 1.74, CF Montreal 1.02.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Seattle Sounders are 7th in Major League Soccer, Western Conference on 38 points from 27 games; CF Montreal are bottom in Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference on 24 points from 27 games.
- Seattle Sounders are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Sporting Kansas City.
- CF Montreal have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to FC Cincinnati.
- Last 6 meetings: CF Montreal 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 April 2024, ended Seattle Sounders 5–0 CF Montreal.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Seattle Sounders at 46% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal
Seattle Sounders
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
- D3-3away to Colorado Rapids20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy13 September 2026
CF Montreal
- W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Philadelphia Union5 September 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 38 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal
- 7 April 2024Seattle Sounders 5–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 30 June 2022Seattle Sounders 1–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 5 June 2019CF Montreal 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 1 April 2018Seattle Sounders 0–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 12 March 2017CF Montreal 2–2 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 3 April 2016Seattle Sounders 1–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and CF Montreal
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
CF Montreal
- P. Owusu15 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Seattle Sounders carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.3 for CF Montreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Seattle Sounders and 1.02 for CF Montreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Seattle Sounders rate 0.60 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Montreal rate 0.53 and 1.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Seattle Sounders the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Seattle Sounders against 1.02 for CF Montreal. Seattle Sounders's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.59 for CF Montreal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Seattle Sounders at home · CF Montreal away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Seattle Sounders 27, CF Montreal 27.
Seattle Sounders score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); CF Montreal have let in 15 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Seattle Sounders
- at San Diego25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- vs Houston Dynamo29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 37%
- at Vancouver Whitecaps1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 22%
CF Montreal
- vs Nashville SC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 22%
- at Charlotte28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 22%
- at New York City FC31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.