Polessya
vs
Dynamo Kyiv
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Polessya 2–1 Dynamo Kyiv
The model makes it 47% Polessya, 25% draw, 28% Dynamo Kyiv — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Polessya 1.82, Dynamo Kyiv 1.28.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Polessya are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games; Dynamo Kyiv are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Polessya are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Bukovyna.
- Dynamo Kyiv are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Karpaty.
- Last 6 meetings: Dynamo Kyiv 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Polessya 1–2 Dynamo Kyiv.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polessya at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv
Polessya
- D2-2away to Bukovyna11 October 2026
- W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026
- W1-0Livyi Bereh13 September 2026
- W5-1Kudrivka4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk29 August 2026
Dynamo Kyiv
- W1-0Karpaty11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Zorya Luhansk19 September 2026
- W3-0Epitsentr Dunayivtsi14 September 2026
- D0-0LNZ Cherkasy6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Bukovyna31 August 2026
What these results say
- Polessya went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polessya scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polessya won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Kyiv kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Polessya
Chance to finish in the top four · 83% today
Dynamo Kyiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 75% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv
- 8 March 2026Polessya 1–2 Dynamo KyivPremier League
- 31 August 2025Dynamo Kyiv 4–1 PolessyaPremier League
- 9 May 2025Polessya 0–0 Dynamo KyivPremier League
- 10 November 2024Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 PolessyaPremier League
- 21 April 2024Dynamo Kyiv 3–0 PolessyaPremier League
- 6 October 2023Polessya 3–2 Dynamo KyivPremier League
Leading scorers: Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv
Polessya
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Dynamo Kyiv
GoalsAssists
- M. Ponomarenko20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Polessya carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.67 for Dynamo Kyiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Polessya and 1.28 for Dynamo Kyiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Polessya rate 0.86 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo Kyiv rate 0.90 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Polessya a 7.6% chance of the title and Dynamo Kyiv 5.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polessya the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Polessya against 1.28 for Dynamo Kyiv. Polessya's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.3 for Dynamo Kyiv.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Polessya at home · Dynamo Kyiv away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Polessya 8, Dynamo Kyiv 7.
Polessya score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Dynamo Kyiv have let in 0 there.
Dynamo Kyiv score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Polessya have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Polessya
- vs Obolon'-Brovar24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 78%
- at Kolos Kovalivka31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs Veres Rivne7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- at LNZ Cherkasy21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Karpaty28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Dynamo Kyiv
- vs Kudrivka24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 78%
- at Kryvbas KR31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Obolon'-Brovar21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 78%
- vs Chornomorets28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.