Regular Season - 4 · 17 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan Botola Pro prediction

Our model says: Difaa EL Jadida 0–1 Moghreb Tetouan

The model makes it 30% Difaa EL Jadida, 31% draw, 39% Moghreb Tetouan — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Difaa EL Jadida 1.05, Moghreb Tetouan 1.32.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published

Key facts

  • Difaa EL Jadida are bottom on 0 points from 2 games; Moghreb Tetouan are 11th on 2 points from 2 games — Botola Pro.
  • Last 6 meetings: Difaa EL Jadida 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2025, ended Moghreb Tetouan 1–3 Difaa EL Jadida.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Difaa EL Jadida30%3.33
Draw31%3.23
Moghreb Tetouan39%2.56

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan

48%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Difaa EL Jadida win Draw Moghreb Tetouan win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 1–29%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Difaa EL Jadida first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 31%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Moghreb Tetouan at 39% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan

Difaa EL Jadida

  • L0-2Wydad AC3 October 2026
  • L2-6CODM Meknès26 September 2026

Moghreb Tetouan

  • D1-1away to Ittihad Tanger2 October 2026
  • D0-0Renaissance Berkane27 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Botola Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Difaa EL Jadida200228-60
11Moghreb Tetouan20201102

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan

  • 22 February 2025Moghreb Tetouan 1–3 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
  • 22 October 2024Difaa EL Jadida 1–0 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
  • 3 April 2023Difaa EL Jadida 0–0 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
  • 15 October 2022Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
  • 18 May 2021Difaa EL Jadida 2–2 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
  • 13 December 2020Moghreb Tetouan 2–2 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro

The two sides

Difaa EL Jadida carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.34 for Moghreb Tetouan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Difaa EL Jadida and 1.32 for Moghreb Tetouan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Difaa EL Jadida rate 0.57 in attack and 2.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Moghreb Tetouan rate 0.52 and 1.48.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Moghreb Tetouan the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Difaa EL Jadida against 1.32 for Moghreb Tetouan. Difaa EL Jadida's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.48 for Moghreb Tetouan.