Amal Tiznit
vs
Difaa EL Jadida
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Amal Tiznit 1–0 Difaa EL Jadida
The model makes it 40% Amal Tiznit, 30% draw, 30% Difaa EL Jadida — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Amal Tiznit 1.47, Difaa EL Jadida 1.13.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Amal Tiznit are 10th on 3 points from 2 games; Difaa EL Jadida are bottom on 0 points from 2 games — Botola Pro.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Amal Tiznit vs Difaa EL Jadida
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amal Tiznit at 40% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Amal Tiznit vs Difaa EL Jadida
Amal Tiznit
- W1-0away to FUS Rabat2 October 2026
- L1-3Ittihad Tanger24 September 2026
Difaa EL Jadida
- L0-2Wydad AC3 October 2026
- L2-6CODM Meknès26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Amal Tiznit | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Difaa EL Jadida | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Amal Tiznit vs Difaa EL Jadida
- 17 May 2026Amal Tiznit 0–3 Difaa EL JadidaCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Amal Tiznit carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.17 for Difaa EL Jadida. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Amal Tiznit and 1.13 for Difaa EL Jadida. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Amal Tiznit rate 0.52 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Difaa EL Jadida rate 0.57 and 2.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amal Tiznit the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Amal Tiznit against 1.13 for Difaa EL Jadida. Amal Tiznit's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.28 for Difaa EL Jadida.
Next match, by difficulty
Amal Tiznit
Difaa EL Jadida
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.