Austin
vs
Nashville SC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Austin 0–1 Nashville SC
The model makes it 26% Austin, 29% draw, 45% Nashville SC — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Austin 0.98, Nashville SC 1.67.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Austin vs Nashville SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nashville SC at 45% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Austin vs Nashville SC
Austin
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
- D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
Nashville SC
- W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
- W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026
- D0-0away to New York City FC4 September 2026
What these results say
- Austin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Austin and Nashville SC
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Nashville SC
- S. Surridge16 goals
- H. Mukhtar11 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Austin carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.81 for Nashville SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for Austin and 1.67 for Nashville SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austin rate 0.60 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nashville SC rate 0.80 and 0.89.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Austin against 1.67 for Nashville SC. Austin's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/0.89 for Nashville SC.