11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Austin vs Nashville SC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Q2 Stadium, Austin
Referee: Ismail Elfath
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Austin 1-4 Nashville SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Austin, 27% draw, 49% Nashville SC — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nashville SC at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austin0%Draw1%Nashville SC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
⚽ Reed Baker-Whiting
Guilherme Biro
37'
🔁Jon Bellout: Brendan Hines-Ike
45'
🔁Myrto Uzuniout: Christian Ramirez
60'
🔁Jorge Alastueyout: Besard Sabovic
61'
67'
⚽Elias Saad
69'
🔁Elias Saadout: Shakur Mohammed
🔁Mikkel Deslerout: Przemyslaw Płacheta
69'
76'
🔁Patrick Yazbekout: Edvard Sandvik Tagseth
76'
🔁Andy Najarout: Daniel Lovitz
⚽Brandon Vazquezassist: Facundo Daniel Torres Perez
76'
78'
Shakur Mohammed
83'
Brian Schwake
88'
⚽Shakur Mohammed
89'
🔁Cristian Espinozaout: josh bauer
90'
🔁matthew corcoranout: Bryan Acosta
90+1'
⚽Hany Mukhtarassist: Shakur Mohammed

Match stats — Austin vs Nashville SC

42%Possession58%
11Shots25
5On target11
4Corners6
1.16xG4.96

Goals against chances

Austin1 from 1.16 xGabout what the chances were worth
Nashville SC4 from 4.96 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Austin 3-4-3
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 15J. BellD
  • 29Guilherme BiroD
  • 11F. TorresM
  • 38Ervin TorresM
  • 6Ilie SánchezM
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 10M. UzuniM
  • 24Jorge AlastueyF
  • 9B. VázquezF
Substitutes
  • 22Chris ApplewhiteD
  • 32M. BurtonM
  • 35M. ĐorđevićD
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 12D. LasG
  • 77P. PłachetaM
  • 21C. RamirezF
  • 14B. ŠabovićM
  • 5O. SvatokD
Coach: D. Arnaud
Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
  • 99B. SchwakeG
  • 31A. NajarD
  • 4J. PalaciosD
  • 3M. WoledziD
  • 27R. Baker-WhitingD
  • 8P. YazbekM
  • 16M. CorcoranM
  • 7C. EspinozaM
  • 10H. MukhtarM
  • 11E. SaadM
  • 9S. SurridgeF
Substitutes
  • 20E. TagsethM
  • 1J. WillisG
  • 19A. MuylM
  • 14S. MohammedM
  • 5J. MaherD
  • 41W. MadrigalF
  • 2D. LovitzD
  • 22J. BauerD
  • 6B. AcostaM
Coach: B. Callaghan

Form going into Austin vs Nashville SC

Austin

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
  • D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
  • D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
  • D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026

Nashville SC

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
  • W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026
  • D0-0away to New York City FC4 September 2026

What these results say

  • Austin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Nashville SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Austin34810164265-2334
1Nashville SC3423837125+4677

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austin vs Nashville SC

  • 2 October 2025Austin 1–2 Nashville SCUS Open Cup
  • 15 February 2025Austin 2–1 Nashville SCFriendlies Clubs
  • 25 August 2024Nashville SC 0–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 18 September 2022Austin 1–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 4 September 2022Nashville SC 3–0 AustinMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Austin and Nashville SC

Austin

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.

Nashville SC

GoalsAssists

  • S. Surridge211
  • H. Mukhtar167

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nashville SC won 4–1 at Austin. The model had made a win for Nashville SC its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Reed Baker-Whiting 30' for Nashville SC, Elias Saad 67' for Nashville SC, Brandon Vazquez 76' for Austin, Shakur Mohammed 88' for Nashville SC, Hany Mukhtar 90+1' for Nashville SC. On expected goals it finished 1.16–4.96.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Austin a 46.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.0% after a win, 45.7% after a draw, 54.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.6%, 8.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Austin v Nashville SC has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 26% / 29% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 24% / 27% / 49%: the biggest move is Nashville SC's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Austin win24%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Nashville SC win49%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.