VPS
vs
KuPS
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: VPS 1–2 KuPS
The model makes it 35% VPS, 28% draw, 37% KuPS — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: VPS 1.57, KuPS 1.65.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: VPS vs KuPS
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are VPS wins, grey are draws, red are KuPS wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KuPS at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VPS vs KuPS
VPS
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
- L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
- L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026
KuPS
- D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
- L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lahti16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 33 |
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VPS vs KuPS
- 25 July 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 13 June 2026VPS 1–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 10 June 2026KuPS 0–0 VPSSuomen Cup
- 31 January 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSLeague Cup
- 19 July 2025VPS 1–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 25 May 2025KuPS 0–2 VPSVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: VPS and KuPS
VPS
- L. Smyth5 goals
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- B. Armah3 goals
- P. Pennanen2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
VPS carry a model rating of 6.01 against 6.17 for KuPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for VPS and 1.65 for KuPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VPS rate 0.49 in attack and 2.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KuPS rate 0.51 and 1.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VPS a 0.3% chance of the title and KuPS 40.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KuPS the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for VPS against 1.65 for KuPS. VPS's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.97 for KuPS.