19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

VPS vs KuPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa
Full time0 – 2

Final score: VPS 0-2 KuPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% VPS, 28% draw, 34% KuPS — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VPS at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VPS0%Draw1%KuPS99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽Tommi Jyry
35'
⚽Joslyn Lutumba Luyeyeassist: Petteri Pennanen
Paulo Lima
45'
Miika Niemi
56'
60'
Ayman Aiki
62'
🔁Ayman Aikiout: Kasim Adams
62'
🔁Petteri Pennanenout: Saikou Touray
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi
69'
70'
🔁Brahima Magassaout: Taneli Hämäläinen
🔁Paulo Limaout: Antti-Ville Raisanen
72'
🔁Yassin Daoussiout: Xavier Odhiambo
72'
Lassana Mané
77'
🔁Simon Lindholmout: Casper Holmelund
79'
🔁Miika Niemiout: Joonas Vahtera
79'
90'
🔁Tommi Jyryout: Samuel Pasanen
Emmanuel Okereke
90+2'

Match stats — VPS vs KuPS

63%Possession37%
17Shots7
1On target4
10Corners4

Line-ups

VPS 5-4-1
  • 41M. JallohG
  • 23M. NiemiD
  • 3Razak SimpsonD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 19M. HaukiojaD
  • 24Y. DaoussiD
  • 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 2L. ManeM
  • 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
  • 14S. LindholmM
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
Substitutes
  • 26R. ForsbackaM
  • 9C. HolmelundF
  • 20X. OdhiamboF
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
  • 30J. VahteraM
  • 12L. VäyrynenG
  • 21Arnold Adu-BoahenD
  • 28Sahid NgobiF
Coach: J. Nuorela
KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 28B. MagassaD
  • 23A. LötjönenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. GascM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 15A. AikiM
  • 11J. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 19C. KabuyeF
  • 13N. KujasaloM
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 29A. PuukkoD
  • 12H. RiihimäkiG
  • 22S. TourayM
  • 17A. HeinonenM
  • 33T. HämäläinenD
  • 4K. AdamsD
Coach: M. Nuutinen

Form going into VPS vs KuPS

VPS

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
  • W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
  • L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
  • L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026

KuPS

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
  • W1-0Shamrock Rovers27 August 2026
  • L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for VPS had two goals or fewer.
  • KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6VPS30117123134-340
3KuPS30141154629+1753

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VPS vs KuPS

  • 25 July 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 13 June 2026VPS 1–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 10 June 2026KuPS 0–0 VPSSuomen Cup
  • 31 January 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSLeague Cup
  • 19 July 2025VPS 1–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: VPS and KuPS

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

KuPS won 2–0 at VPS. The model had leaned towards a win for VPS at 38% and given a win for KuPS 34%. The goals: Tommi Jyry 29' for KuPS, Joslyn Lutumba Luyeye 35' for KuPS.

How the call on VPS v KuPS has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is KuPS's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. VPS win38%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▲ +2
  3. KuPS win34%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.