Minnesota United FC
vs
Los Angeles Galaxy
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Minnesota United FC 2–1 Los Angeles Galaxy
The model makes it 53% Minnesota United FC, 24% draw, 23% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 2.55, Los Angeles Galaxy 1.26.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Minnesota United FC wins, grey are draws, red are Los Angeles Galaxy wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Minnesota United FC
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
- D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
- W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps10 September 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution6 September 2026
- L1-3away to San Diego30 August 2026
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 29 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Los Angeles Galaxy
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah13 goals2 assists
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Minnesota United FC carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.36 for Los Angeles Galaxy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.55 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.26 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Minnesota United FC rate 0.91 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.64 and 1.72.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Los Angeles Galaxy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Minnesota United FC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Minnesota United FC against 1.26 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Minnesota United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.72 for Los Angeles Galaxy.