Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 2-3 Los Angeles Galaxy.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Minnesota United FC, 24% draw, 23% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 53% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CallenderG
- 67C. HarveyD
- 23M. DugganD
- 5N. RomeroD
- 3K. DuncanM
- 30O. GeneM
- 20W. TrappM
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 26J. PereyraF
- 22M. CaldeiraF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 1A. SmirG
- 28J. DiazD
- 27D. TaylorD
- 16A. JacksonM
- 25N. TriantisD
- 11M. MaloneF
- 21B. HlongwaneF
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 18M. GonzalezF
- 12J. MarcinkowskiG
- 2Lucas CalegariD
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 15J. HaakD
- 3J. AudeD
- 27E. ThommyM
- 17P. RuizM
- 21R. TaylorM
- 11H. LozanoM
- 26H. MillerM
- 7K. FuruhashiF
- 1N. MicovicG
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 14J. NelsonD
- 25C. GarcesD
- 18M. ReusM
- 16I. ParenteM
- 8L. SanabriaM
- 76T. ElgersmaM
- 99Joao KlaussF
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Minnesota United FC
All competitions we cover
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas10 September 2026
- L4-5away to Portland Timbers6 September 2026
- D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
- W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps10 September 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution6 September 2026
- L1-3away to San Diego30 August 2026
- D2-2away to CF Montreal22 August 2026
What these results say
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Minnesota United FC had three goals or more.
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 5 April 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 19 October 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 22 March 2025Minnesota United FC 2–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 12 February 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 Minnesota United FCFriendlies Clubs
- 24 November 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 6–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Los Angeles Galaxy
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah183
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Los Angeles Galaxy won 3–2 at Minnesota United FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Minnesota United FC at 53% and given a win for Los Angeles Galaxy 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: P. Ruiz 12' for Los Angeles Galaxy, M. Caldeira 23' for Minnesota United FC, K. Yeboah (penalty) 28' for Minnesota United FC, Joao Klauss 76' for Los Angeles Galaxy, M. Reus 80' for Los Angeles Galaxy. On expected goals it finished 1.88–1.59.
How the call on Minnesota United FC v Los Angeles Galaxy has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 49% / 25% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 24% / 23%: the biggest move is Minnesota United FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Minnesota United FC win53%▲ +4
- Draw24%▼ −1
- Los Angeles Galaxy win23%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.