Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Minnesota United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Sporting Kansas City, 22% draw, 26% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Kansas City at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Stefan ClevelandG
- 8Jacob DavisD
- 5Or BlorianD
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 18Emir KarićD
- 4Lasse Berg JohnsenM
- 22Zorhan BassongM
- 7CapitaM
- 6Manu GarcíaM
- 11Calvin HarrisM
- 9Dejan JoveljićF
- 20Kwaku AgyabengM
- 17Stephen AfrifaF
- 99Jayden ReidD
- 16Jacob BartlettD
- 1John PulskampG
- 23Ethan BartlowD
- 2Ian JamesD
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 93Shapi SuleymanovF
- 12Drake CallenderG
- 15Michael BoxallD
- 23Morris DugganD
- 2Devin PadelfordD
- 3Kyle DuncanM
- 30Owen GeneM
- 20Wil TrappM
- 13Anthony MarkanichM
- 26Joaquín PereyraF
- 9Kelvin YeboahF
- 8Tomás ChancalayF
- 21Bongokuhle HlongwaneF
- 29Mamadou DiengF
- 28Jefferson DíazD
- 18Mauricio GonzálezF
- 24Julian GresselM
- 1Alec SmirG
- 33Kieran ChandlerD
- 27D.J. TaylorD
- 6Peter StroudM
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC
Sporting Kansas City
- L2-3away to St. Louis City17 July 2026
Minnesota United FC
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC
- 23 July 2026Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 7 February 2026Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Minnesota United FCFriendlies Clubs
- 5 October 2025Minnesota United FC 3–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 22 September 2024Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 June 2024Minnesota United FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and Minnesota United FC
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah13 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.